Aby The Liberal

Dmitri July 12th, 2007

In the last few years the world has seen a decline in the influence of United States as a global superpower, particularly in Europe and East Asia. The developments after the collapse of Soviet Union and the Gulf War in 2001, led the world to a heightened state of paranoia against the perceived US imperialism, as shown by the race among nations to balance America’s super power status. Russia fell behind due to its economic problems, as the loss of major territories like Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan hit it hard. These factors along with the reorganisation of Europe as the European Union led the political analysts and commentators around the world to prophesise India, China and EU as the future superpowers.

India is quite often in the reports of global political analysts and media specialists [eg. Newsweek] as the next possible superpower on a global level. India has significant political influence in South Asia due to its its capabilities as an economic giant, a large country with a billion people, a military might and a rich cultural heritage spanning thousands of years into the past. Yet it takes much more than a regional power to become a global superpower. A nation needs to be a global military and economic might with political and cultural influence to be a superpower. Rather than getting worked up by impressive media commentaries it would be worthwhile to look into some hard facts and figures to see India’s position on the global economic scale.

The largest slum in Asia at the heart of India’s financial capital Mumbai; millions of poor in India live in such conditions.

After the liberalisation of its economy in 1991, followed with the opening up of its markets to global players, India went on a fast track economic boom with an 8-9% GDP growth per year. This was largely possible because of a vast population with a large middle class market, and a huge manpower of cheap skilled workers in the IT and service industry catering mainly to the corporate back offices of US and UK. Yet despite the rosy picture, the beneficiary of this economic growth remains a meagre 10% of India’s 1 billion population earning 33% of India’s national income [Source]. The purchasing power of Indians remains at a fraction of that of EU or USA, at an annual per capita GDP (PPP) of approximately US $3800 (2006). The large GDP that India boasts of, $1.2 trillion looks impressive on a global scale but diminishes when its huge population is taken into account. Over 79.9% of Indians live on less than a $2 a day; among them 34.7% live on less than a dollar a day, according to the data compiled by UN Human Development Report 2006.

In the area of education, the large pool of IT workers and technologists can’t overshadow the fact that India still remains one of the most illiterate countries in the developing world. With 39% of the population being unable to read and write, this represents about 400 million people - more than the total population of US, Australia and Canada put together. Sparing a few national universities of repute in the major urban areas, the majority of Indian universities and colleges fail to produce skilled professionals which could be employable in intellectually demanding fields like research, development and manufacturing. The quality of school education in the public sector remains woefully low due to lack of teachers, classrooms, books and basic educational amenities. The famed English speaking Indians are mainly limited to the private school educated economic elite which represents less than 5% of the of Indians, often termed as ‘middle class’.

With a over 37% of the population being illiterate and living under a dollar a day, India still remains an economically third world country; hardly a superpower or a global economic power. At the current trends it would take at least 30 years for India to have one third the purchasing power of the developed nations (provided that the current growth is sustained). By the time India catches up with the present living standards of developed nations, there will be too many players like Europe, Russia, China, Japan, Brazil and United States that the term ‘Superpower’ will become obsolete to be replaced by multiple ‘powers’.

• World Politics , Internationalism , Ideology , Economy
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Aby July 2nd, 2007

The economic boom of China and its emergence as a global military power put quite a lot of interest on China as the next possible superpower. In this game of China baiting, some of the western countries like UK and USA assumed that the long silence of Russia in global political and military issues signified its weakening. They were in for a shock at Russian President Vladimir Putin’s verbal attack at US last February and a few months later, his blatant refusal to hand over Andrei Lugovi to UK in the Litvinenko murder case. These developments were followed by Russia’s RS 24 ICBM and Iskander cruise missile tests on 29th May, 2007 and then the recent Bulava SLBM test on 28th June - both considered as a show of Putin’s displeasure at US activities in Eastern Europe. Analysts went as far as dubbing the new missile tests and renewed US vs Russian arms race as Cold War 2 while critics claim that Russia’s present economy and military power is not capable of a Cold War situation. Let us see how far it goes…

GW Bush, the US president gets mocked at by Vladmir Putin, the Russian President for making a stupid comment during G8 summit of 2006 at St. Petersburg (Click on video to play)

Economy - Russia’s economy is booming at a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 7.9% in the first quarter of 2007, as reported by The Economist, London [18th June 2007]. And it is not only oil and gas which is fuelling this growth but also the boom in infrastructure, manufacturing and trade (a la China). The disposable incomes of the Russians has risen by 13% and so did their investments. While it might not be possible to sustain such a high GDP growth of 7.9% for long considering the sluggish oil and gas sectors; the annual GDP growth of 2007 is expected to be around 7.0 - 7.5%. According to International Monetary Fund (IMF), the 2006 per capita GDP (at Purchasing Power Parity) of Russia was at US $12,096 while the same for People’s Republic of China was at US $7,598. With a per capita GDP growth of China at 9.8% against Russia’s 7.0% in 2006, China has a long way to go to overtake Russia if the economic boom of 2007 is taken into account.

Military - The strategic military might of Russia is an inheritance  of the USA vs USSR Cold War arms race. It is the undisputed numero uno in nuclear forces and is next to the United States in conventional forces. Russia is a global leader in strategic missiles and nuclear warheads with the fastest ICBM, largest number of ICBMs, fastest cruise missile, most powerful nuclear bomb, largest number of nuclear warheads, mobile truck based non-silo ICBM launchers and strategic long range SLBMs. Air force is another area where Russia scores with only the United States and European Union (EU) capable of pitting against Russia. In spite of a defence budget smaller than USA or EU, Russian Air Force and their fighters often outdo their US counterparts on an equal footing during military exercises. The Russian Navy lost the true blue water capabilities of US Navy after the collapse of USSR but is still ages ahead of other naval forces in terms of ships, submarines, missiles and equipments. The strength of its military is still at the level of a superpower which has been recognised and accepted both by the UN Security Council and Group of Eight (G8) nations.

In spite of US and UK engaging in mud-slinging at Russia at every available opportunity, the fact remains that Russia is still their formidable military opponent, the greatest roadblock to America’s plan to dominate the world. Russia influences a lot of what happens around the global political and military arena. Russia’s military is still one of the most powerful in the world, despite being much reduced in size after the breakup of USSR. Russia’s political pull in the world is still strong because of its military superiority, oil resources and super large arms market (most of the military arms and ammunition in the world are made by former-USSR and present Russia). Russia will continue to have the political support of countries who feel threatened by the US foreign policy of military domination and political double standards. As for United States and United Kingdom despite the apprehension against Russia’s resurging political power, there is no wishing away its unchallenged military might…

• Military , Economy , Russia
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