Aby The Liberal

Aby August 4th, 2007

Russia, which has been claiming the Arctic region since the last few months, made a strategic move by having scientists plant the Russian flag 4200m below the North Pole ice bed (August 2, 207). This act follows several other decisive anti-West moves of the Vladimir Putin government in the past few months. It also signifies the rising nationalism in Russia which Putin is cashing on for his strategic political advantage. Putin is the hero of the Russians as he showed that he would not hesitate to wield power in international circles for the political, military and national interests of Russia. Before the Russophobes and Anglo-US moralists cry foul over Russia’s recent move in the Arctic, let us look back at the facts on the Arctic dispute which could have caused it all.

A video from Russia Today on the recent polar Arctic expedition by Russian scientists

According to geological surveys made in US and other parts of the world, the Arctic shelf contains a quarter of the energy resources in the world. The melting polar ice caps created the possibility of new sea routes and oil fields, causing quite a few disputes among US, Denmark, Canada and Russia about the ownership of the Arctic shelf. The US attitude gave a red signal to Putin and his team about the possibility of US capturing, or at least taking over a part of the Arctic shelf for its own interests. One significant pointer to such a possibility is the United States’ refusal to to ratify the 1982 United Nations Convention on Law of the Sea, as the senators did not want International norms to restrict America from drilling in neutral zones like international waters and Arctic zone.

Vladimir Putin was well aware that it is only a matter of years before the US would make either a justification or a claim, and capture the Arctic shelf for itself or its allies - beyond the bounds of international laws. History is evident of such trends in US foreign policy, especially in the Asia Pacific region and American Hemisphere, which Putin as an ex-KGB agent, is well aware of. Thus Putin decided to act quick and seized the opportunity which made the US and its allies cry foul, once they realised that Putin beat them in their political game. It was a strategic move towards a diplomatic takeover of Arctic region rather than the military seizure which the US is so used to. The 100+ billion ton oil and natural gas reserves in the Arctic shelf could well push Russia to a global oil power which coupled with its military strength, could make for another super power.

Vladimir Putin still maintains that Russia would go by the international norms and not capture Arctic territory surreptitiously, which is met with scepticism among some political circles. Going by the usual trends, Russophobes cry foul about how Russia uses energy and oil to manipulate European politics while Russians have something more to support their President on…

• Internationalism , Russia
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Aby July 2nd, 2007

The economic boom of China and its emergence as a global military power put quite a lot of interest on China as the next possible superpower. In this game of China baiting, some of the western countries like UK and USA assumed that the long silence of Russia in global political and military issues signified its weakening. They were in for a shock at Russian President Vladimir Putin’s verbal attack at US last February and a few months later, his blatant refusal to hand over Andrei Lugovi to UK in the Litvinenko murder case. These developments were followed by Russia’s RS 24 ICBM and Iskander cruise missile tests on 29th May, 2007 and then the recent Bulava SLBM test on 28th June - both considered as a show of Putin’s displeasure at US activities in Eastern Europe. Analysts went as far as dubbing the new missile tests and renewed US vs Russian arms race as Cold War 2 while critics claim that Russia’s present economy and military power is not capable of a Cold War situation. Let us see how far it goes…

GW Bush, the US president gets mocked at by Vladmir Putin, the Russian President for making a stupid comment during G8 summit of 2006 at St. Petersburg (Click on video to play)

Economy - Russia’s economy is booming at a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 7.9% in the first quarter of 2007, as reported by The Economist, London [18th June 2007]. And it is not only oil and gas which is fuelling this growth but also the boom in infrastructure, manufacturing and trade (a la China). The disposable incomes of the Russians has risen by 13% and so did their investments. While it might not be possible to sustain such a high GDP growth of 7.9% for long considering the sluggish oil and gas sectors; the annual GDP growth of 2007 is expected to be around 7.0 - 7.5%. According to International Monetary Fund (IMF), the 2006 per capita GDP (at Purchasing Power Parity) of Russia was at US $12,096 while the same for People’s Republic of China was at US $7,598. With a per capita GDP growth of China at 9.8% against Russia’s 7.0% in 2006, China has a long way to go to overtake Russia if the economic boom of 2007 is taken into account.

Military - The strategic military might of Russia is an inheritance  of the USA vs USSR Cold War arms race. It is the undisputed numero uno in nuclear forces and is next to the United States in conventional forces. Russia is a global leader in strategic missiles and nuclear warheads with the fastest ICBM, largest number of ICBMs, fastest cruise missile, most powerful nuclear bomb, largest number of nuclear warheads, mobile truck based non-silo ICBM launchers and strategic long range SLBMs. Air force is another area where Russia scores with only the United States and European Union (EU) capable of pitting against Russia. In spite of a defence budget smaller than USA or EU, Russian Air Force and their fighters often outdo their US counterparts on an equal footing during military exercises. The Russian Navy lost the true blue water capabilities of US Navy after the collapse of USSR but is still ages ahead of other naval forces in terms of ships, submarines, missiles and equipments. The strength of its military is still at the level of a superpower which has been recognised and accepted both by the UN Security Council and Group of Eight (G8) nations.

In spite of US and UK engaging in mud-slinging at Russia at every available opportunity, the fact remains that Russia is still their formidable military opponent, the greatest roadblock to America’s plan to dominate the world. Russia influences a lot of what happens around the global political and military arena. Russia’s military is still one of the most powerful in the world, despite being much reduced in size after the breakup of USSR. Russia’s political pull in the world is still strong because of its military superiority, oil resources and super large arms market (most of the military arms and ammunition in the world are made by former-USSR and present Russia). Russia will continue to have the political support of countries who feel threatened by the US foreign policy of military domination and political double standards. As for United States and United Kingdom despite the apprehension against Russia’s resurging political power, there is no wishing away its unchallenged military might…

• Military , Economy , Russia
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