China’s MAD Nuclear Deterrance Against USA
Aby July 14th, 2007
The United States and China are military adversaries since the Taiwan and North Korea crisis’ and despite the present economic partnership, the military differences exist. The CPC government of China follows a policy of minimum credible nuclear deterrence to prevent China from being coerced or blackmailed to submission by the US. However, China’s current nuclear stockpile of approximately 200 warheads seems too small against the United States which has a gigantic stockpile of about 5000 warheads. How could China with such a small nuclear stockpile have a MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) nuclear relationship with US? A calculation of a simulated nuclear war scenario between US and China would help us understand how this balance is maintained, even today.
A Chinese 3.3 Megaton thermonuclear bomb tested in 1967 (Click video to play)
China’s nuclear force is based on a ‘No First Use‘ policy formulated by its erstwhile President Mao Zedong. This makes sense as China could not launch a first strike against US without facing obliteration in a strike-back by US. The small quantity of nuclear warheads and strategic missiles that China possesses, would make a Chinese attack on US nuclear facilities futile, as China has neither the accuracy of missiles nor the number of warheads required to destroy the all the US facilities. On the other hand United States, with its improvised and highly accurate strategic missiles (Trident and Minuteman) could strike and destroy over 75% of China’s nuclear facilities with just about 2-4% of its nuclear and missile arsenal spent. But even in the event of a war; a successful destruction of 75-80% of China’s nuclear facilities leaves at least 20-25% surviving, which can be used as a retaliatory attack against the United States. A 100% destruction of China’s nuclear facilities would be highly unlikely considering the logistical impossibility of targeting and destroying all of China’s mobile and SILO launched nuclear ICBMs.
Since China can’t destroy US nuclear facilities, as a retaliatory resort it would strike what hurts USA most - its people. This is primarily the reason why US cities have been targets of Chinese ICBMs for the last few decades. A DF 5A (Dong Feng) missile launched from hardened or mobile SILOs in China’s Hunan province will have most of West and Central US in its reach. A 12000 km DF 5 Mod 2 goes even further, including east coast cities like New York and Atlanta in its range if a polar trajectory is followed.
A DF 5A ICBM can carry a 3.5 MT (Megaton) thermonuclear warhead. The 3.5 MT warhead detonated at a height of 2500 meters would have a blast radius of 7 km, exposing 154 km2 of the ground surface to a blast overpressure of 10 psi or higher. In addition to the immediate energy shockwaves of the blast, such a high yield H-Bomb would also cause widespread radiation fallouts and heated firestorms due to the rapid changes in the atmospheric pressure which follow such an explosion. If a single such warhead is detonated over a busy megapolis like New York, Chicago or Los Angeles, at least 1.5 million people would be eliminated immediately during the explosion and a further million within another 72 hours due to radiation burns, sickness and firestorms. If only 5 of the DF 5As are launched against 5 US cities and 4 of them successfully strike the US mainland, more than 10 million people would face extermination.
According to US DoD Reports to the Congress in 2006, a DF5A Mod2 can be MIRVed with 6 warheads of 250 KT each. In such a case, if each warhead detonates 1500 metres above the ground, the total blast radius (@10 psi) of all the six warheads would exceed 21 kms bringing over 1386 km2 under coverage. The fatalities from a single such strike on a city like New York or Chicago would exceed 5 million at the bare minimum. In such a scenario, if 4 of these missiles with 24 warheads strike 4-10 US cities with an accuracy of 83%, at least 14 million people would be annihilated in these cities. This still leaves out the DF 31A ICBMs and JL-1 SLBMs which could strike US targets and further the damage.
From both the cases it can be understood than even a retaliatory second strike by China can inflict severe devastation on the continental US. These are just bare conservative estimates, reality could be much more deadly and devastating with 40-100 million casualties. Chinese military strategists can easily do this calculation themselves and as such it becomes apparent why China is so sure that its relatively small number of ICBMs act as an adequate deterrent against the United States or even India and Russia for that matter. The threat of even a few surviving nuclear missiles hitting the United States serves as a robust deterrent for the United States. China would not consider a first strike either, as it would face total annihilation due to the massive US nuclear and missile stockpile. Thus the MAD balance is maintained between these two countries, one wary of the other despite their significant disparity in nuclear weapons stockpile and delivery systems.
Further Information and Resources -
Military Power of the People’s Republic of China 2006 - DoD Annual Report to the Congress
The Effects of Nuclear Weapons
Possibly Related posts:
- United States vs China - Consequences of a Nuclear War
- US vs Russia vs China - Nuclear Warhead Stockpiles
- Nuclear Missile Forces - USA vs China vs Russia
- The Future of Nuclear Deterrence Between US and Russia
- India vs China on Military Strength - Conventional and Nuclear
- America , Military , World Politics
- Comments(17)
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Yo China! We need China to keep the madness of america in check.
I do not fancy China as a superpower. They kill their own people with tanks imagine what they will do to others. Superpower is just an excuse for hegemony, Hitler wanted to be a superpower and look what he did.
China’s inclination is not on competing with enemy strength but targeting its weakness. By such a policy it makes sure it is not attacked even by the mighty United States and still manages to have its position in the globe to counter American imperialism. America’s fear of PRC is because it can fend off a US attack and cannot be dominated like US does to other weak countries.
The freedom-loving people of the United States of America would never attack China first. The most likely scenario is that China will attack Taiwan, forcing the United States to defend Taiwan from communist aggression with one or two aircraft carrier battle groups. Being incapable of overcoming such overwhelming firepower, the communist Chinese will resort to using nuclear weapons against the aircraft carrier battle groups. The United States will not stand by and take such aggression. A likely response will be to destroy the aggressive nuclear missile facilities of the freedom-hating communists. The Chinese leaders, not wanting to lose face to the world and risk retaliation by their own people for such failure, would launch a first-strike against US cities, full of innocent civilians. In a tit-for-tat, the United States will be left with no choice but to totally decimate communist China with hundreds of nuclear weapons, wiping out most of the population. This is not necessarily a bad thing, because the world is overpopulated, and unsustainable.
@ Oland - “The freedom-loving people of the United States of America would never attack China first.”
The United States does not attack China, not because they are freedom loving. It is because they would face massive and destructive retaliation if they dare to do so. The world has seen enough of the nature of Americans, one would not call killing of over 11 million humans and the invasions of third world countries as ‘freedom loving’.
@ Oland - “The most likely scenario is that China will attack Taiwan, forcing the United States to defend Taiwan from communist aggression with one or two aircraft carrier battle groups.”
That is actually the least likely scenario due to political and military reasons. An attack on Taiwan by conventional means will be an overkill by the Chinese PLA, at the risk of a full scale war. Both the United States and PRC are aware that Taiwan is too minor a cause to risk a destructive nuclear exchange and possibly another World War.
@ Oland - “Being incapable of overcoming such overwhelming firepower, the communist Chinese will resort to using nuclear weapons against the aircraft carrier battle groups.”
Nuclear warheads for naval ships and aircraft carriers are an overkill too. Chinese PLA could more effectively employ anti-ship cruise missiles fitted with fragmenting conventional warheads. The naval strike fighters of USAF would find no ships to return to.
@ Oland - “A likely response will be to destroy the aggressive nuclear missile facilities of the freedom-hating communists.”
A very emotional, heart-in-sleeve comment. Why do the Chinese become ‘freedom hating’ and agressive while Americans turn ‘freedom loving’ without any reason? Reality speaks otherwise, China did not launch into aggression against any country or snatch freedom of others while the Americans consider a year without a war is a year wasted.
@ Oland - “In a tit-for-tat, the United States will be left with no choice but to totally decimate communist China with hundreds of nuclear weapons, wiping out most of the population. This is not necessarily a bad thing, because the world is overpopulated, and unsustainable.”
I suppose you represent one of those nationalists who would like a nuclear war with China come to pass despite the devastation it could cause. The United States would not be able to use hundreds of nuclear warheads against China without Russia feeling threatened. We can imagine what would happen if Russia launches hundreds of missiles headed for America, in the event of a false alarm or a stray US missile in Russian territory.
Looking the the bottomline, the political will of either United States or People’s Republic of China to use nuclear weapons against each other would be close to zero, even in moments of desperation. Additionally China has declared and it maintains a ‘no-first-use’ nuclear policy which fits with their political and military goals pretty well, without threatening their existence or sovereignty. Only a US first strike on China would bring about a full scale nuclear war. Unless the US administration wants a few cities and a few million people less, a nuclear first strike on China is not coming.
@Aby
Common…Where is my post on the forum sounding something like “Can China possibly defeat the US in a war?”…and where is the forum at the first place?
I had put some pertinent questions for you to answer…both there as well as the two other forums “India vs China on Military Strength” and “India vs Pakistan on Military Strength” and I am till date waiting for those answers. And btw…isn’t it a bit childish to assume that the US would employ such unreliable ICBMs(instead of precission guided one’s) to deliver the nukes on China that may land up in Russia? And even without it….Russia might get alarmed to the extent that it may resort to launch pre emptive strikes on the US mainland without an over or covert strike from the US on its territorial boundaries? Please don’t air fancy sentiments with the liberty of being the forum moderator. Anti US hegemony is OK….but should be tempered with reason and logic.
Mr. Gomzi, your questions will be answered once Aby is back and in a position to do so. It is not worth losing your patience over a thing as minor as this. Meanwhile I will answer a few of your above arguments myself as it concerns my area, you may wait for Aby to get a more relevant response to this post.
I am sorry, you will have to keep a track of your own comments yourself. This is not a forum so there is no way to do a check on all your comments. If you have made a comment and it did not go under moderation, it is still there.
I don’t think anyone was suggesting that US ICBMs would end up in Russia, perhaps you have misread something?
As for precision guided ICBMs, strategic nuclear missiles rely on intertial guidance using basic laws of physics. The precision of such a guidance system is limited to a CEP of 250 metres, which is achieved by the Russian Topol M and US MX Peacekeeper. Excessive electronic sophistication on a missile as crtical as ICBM would risk sabotage from an electronic or cyber countermeasure by a skilled enemy. If I were to destroy a city block with a nuclear warheaded ICBM I would be more concerned about getting it to the destination than getting it through someone’s window, unlike a precision guided bomb or cruise missile which risks being intercepted. A 100+ KT nuclear warhead would be deadly whether it falls on dot on the target or 500 metres off center. I hope you get the gist.
The reasons here would be more political than military. China is a neighbour of Russia, there is an imminent risk of a nuclear fallout in case of a US-China nuclear exchange. Additionally, if the US launches a nuclear war against China it is pretty obvious where this will go, history has been a bitter evidence of this. Russia paid heavily for ignoring Hitler’s rise and aggressions in Europe.
Impressive, with a tiny flaw. This is not a forum, there are no moderators and there are no fancy sentiments in a post, we deal only with reasonable arguments and logical facts. Unfortunately, we cannot afford to make assumptions of unrealistics ideas which do not exist, such as the idea of precision guided ICBMs.
I agree with this post that Oland; Therefore, having a mangină.
@ Oland - The Pênis-loving people of the United States of America would never Fist China’s ăss. The most likely scenario is that China will make more babies, forcing the United States to have more sex to “up” the population from communist aggression with one or two aircraft carrier battle groups on their ball-sac. Being incapable of overcoming such overwhelming firepower, the communist Chinese will resort to using nuclear weapons against the Rainbow Flag Fliers on aircraft carriers. The United States will not stand by and take it up the ăss with such aggression. A likely response will be to Recruit găy Făgs into the military to bring Homosexuality to the facilities of the freedom-hating communists. The Chinese leaders, not wanting to lose face to the world and risk retaliation by their own people for such failure, would launch a first-strike against US cities, full of innocent civilians. In a titties-for-tatties, the United States will be left with no choice but to totally decimate communist China with their small Penis’s and sending the “Găy Troops”, wiping out most of the population. This is a bad thing, because the world is overpopulated with Făggots, and unsustainable for life of a “straight people” so the United States will push toward “Făggatory” force of the straight people of China.
The Chinese government is using cyber warfare against the world, they have tried to hack into the U.S. government’s national security computers, they have possibly successful hacked into Germany’s government computers, they have tried hacking into Australia’s government computers. Angela Merkel has been very concerned over this.
China will try to shut down and “blackout” countres’ computers and shut down the whole grid on entire nation’s and ‘blind’ countries. China has it’s secret agents in almost every country around the world stealing nuclear secrets in the U.S., Canada, EU, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Australia and China is very protective of North Korea and has shown no interest in helping bring North Korea, South Korea and Japan together. China’s step child is North Korea and Burma/Myanmar. A Chinese ship also got caught trying to send secret shipments of weapons to Zimbabwe for Robert Mugabe’s regime. China is funding and propping up the Islamic Sudanese government because Sudan provides a lot of oil to China and China sits on the U.N. Security Council and can block/veto any kind of peace keeping force entering Sudan.
http://www.newsmax.com/headlines/china_cyberwar/2007/09/14/32827.html
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/chinese-waging-online-spy-war/2008/02/09/1202234232007.html
though its a horrible idea,
i do wish that Hitler didn’t go out on that mad spree in the 1940’s, and merely ‘mellowed’ out like the other mad dictators of the world (General Franco, Castro, the Russians)
the ‘problem’ of the US hegemony started right after World War 2. if there hadn’t been any world war 2, then the problem wouldn’t exist. true, the world might have faced some problems, but at least there existed check and balances to even out the most over bloated of patriotic ego, from candidates like the Brits, the French, the Japanese, the Russians and of course the Yanks. not like now with the world in this ‘one party state’.
Besides, you gotta admit that the Nazi’s uniforms were the smartest of the lot!
gimme a SS Hugo Boss-designed uniform than that awful us marine shite any day of the week..
A nuclear war between the US and China would lead to the destruction of China . If the American s really want they could blow up the whole of china.But there will be a price to pulverize the Chines.
The PLA will destroy all major US cities. It’s just like a hostage taker . Before he dies he will inflict maximum bodily harm on the other guy.Another analogy is between two guys fighting.The stronger can kill the other person. The latter will ripped the out the stomach of the stronger person leaving him seriously,not fatally injured.
Hence Bush and his cronies want a missile shield to guard against NK missiles.The PLA aint dumb to falll for such a trick.
The thing is if the US wants to have more security it will will be at the expenxe of China. No PLA chief will tolerate this just as the chairman US of JCS will
do likewise.
As it is the PLA is raising the stakes for involment in Taiwan. The days when the US can unleash a nuclear attack or conventional one on China without retaliation are over.
As it is The PLA is getting stronger every minute and the costs to US involement would increase.
Think about it Bush and his gang . Yes the US will prevail but it won’t be a cheap victory.
China alone can suffocate american economy. Thats all it can and will do. It would not atatck directly to US (The big customer) from which it makes billions.
Most likely scenario, China (individual Chinese businessman) may fund indirectly a Arab/ISlamic terriorist or terriorist group by purchasing Russian Weapons (individual russian weapon dealer or ex-KGB spy).
China (money)
Arabs (Manpower)
Russia (weapons).
Question is —are there terrorists groups out there to harm US? Does Russia have weapons that can cause mayhem and destruction in US? Can China afford this kind of expense?
If a foreigner cant come in US and attack? Can they Russia, China and Arab hire an insider (American–lets say -Timothy Mcveigh) to attack USA?
Oh for heavens sakes people you are all forgetting the one main outcome of a total nuclear war between USA, China and possibly Russia (who has been rattling its sabres lately). NO ONE WILL WIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Who ever wins the initial conflict will loose the peace afterwards through economic destruction and starvation. The amount of ash and soot ejected into the atmosphere will cause a global cooling maybe even a nuclear winter that would last for several years. Several years of very cold temperatures will lead to massive crop failures around the world leading to a massive world wide famine the like of which no one has ever seen. Both sides have to eat and drink. The devastation to the global ecology may be so bad it would never recover so neither would any of the world’s civilisations. So it doesn’t matter how it will start nor who wins the war both will loose the peace. That was the main reason New Zealand became a nuclear weapons free zone even though it meant the end of our military alliance with the US because we could see there would be no victors and that it is totally insane to use WMDs to win a war because no one would win. End of Bl–dy story.
Nuclear Weapons (a maverick states US & Israel)
0. My Father taught me “believe nothing you hear, believe 1/2 of what you actually think you see and always be prepared for the worst..its Coming.
1. Act in your own Interests
2. Never agree to anything that does not suit your interest 110%
3. You will find, even when searching hard and deply, a lot of informations about subject, but will will never learn the real trueth about anything.
4. Even in your hands, what is true and what is false?
The PRC China is the be admired and not to be scorned. The may just end up to be the saviors of this world from the likes of G.W.Bush and the Israelies.
Timespanr
CHINA IS GETING MORE NUKES BECAUSE THE U.S IS DOING SO.
The problem is the US wants to perpetuate its military/nuclear supemacy. History is full of examples od countries that were top dog and and were forced out.In recent times the british empire is a good example.It was said the sun never set on the BE.
As for the US empire,it is spending so much on weapons that it has negelected the American people.
There are millions of homeless and millios without medical cover.A time will come when it can’t find the money to spend of defence read attack other countries that it will go the way of the BE,
I couldn’t understand why the Americans (US people only) were so hatred and bias towards Chinese. Did us, Chinese offended the Americans because of China military defensive build up or for some other reasons. China was working so hard to limit and control its population’s growth. How could the Americans possibly say awful things? China populations’ growing was beyond reckoned due to Chinese were faced massive death during past war time. Chinese people loves to be left alone and living in peaceful atmospheres.