Europe In The Light of Resurgent Russia
Dmitri October 8th, 2007
The collapse of the Soviet Union led many western pro-democracy political analysts to believe that Russia would be on a prosperity path to be a global economic might. But their analyses went horribly wrong and post-Soviet Russian economy went downhill, along with its political and military influence. It was very much like Berlin in latter days of Weimar Republic, living in past glory with a bleak present and a dark future. The failure of western economic model on Russia gave rise to skepticism on whether one could count Russia any more as a superpower once its large nuclear force was ignored. However Russians got their act together and started making a comeback, after alarm bells started ringing - with the NATO-led bombings of Serbia in 1990s and more recently, a determined NATO expansion towards Eastern Europe.
A BBC News video on recent Russian bomber patrols over British airspace - a symbolism of Cold War power projection
Things really started looking up in Russia after Vladimir Putin came to power in 1999. With strategic experience of an ex-KGB agent and diplomatic experience of an internationalist, Putin pulled Russian economy back from its post-Cold War downfall. Doomsday sayers who predicted a ‘Latin America’ situation for Russia were dissappointed after the energy and infrastructure boom put Russian on track with other global economic powers. Vladimir Putin became a hero of the Russian people by restoring their national pride (which was as weak as its economy after several political failures). Putin also scored political and diplomatic brownie points for Russia by strengthening ties with West Asia and improving relationships with non Anglo-Saxon Western Europe.
Despite the political and economic restructuring of Russia in the early 21st century, European political analysts were slow and reluctant to acknowledge the reality of Russia’s resurgence. However the stupour dissappeared once Russia made a few critical political and military moves to assert its power projection in Europe. These moves included a tougher stance on Kosovo issue, opposition to US missile shield in Poland, revival of strategic nuclear missile development, political manipulation of Europe by controlling gas supplies, revival of nuclear bomber missions, taking a pro-Iran political stance, Arctic missions with territorial claims, revived patrols of nuclear submarines in the Pacific and finally the testing of the largest conventional bomb FOAB on September 11, 2007.
The economic resurgence and revival of power games has already caused a bit of flutter around the world, with speculations that the Cold War is not yet over. While the rest of the world looks at Russia as a counterforce against US to create a multipolar world, Europe sees Russia as a threat to its political stability. A strong and more powerful Russia will have a power projection in Europe which will be more effective than the weakening United States’ influence among European Union nations. What Europe is going to face in the light of Russia ’s growing political and military assertiveness is a few changes in EU foreign policy to accomodate Russian interests, in addition to their own.
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- Comments(19)
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As an American I support whatever works for Russia. I won’t support democracy for Russia if it causes corruption and people to suffer.
America has a democracy, but it kills people all around the world. China and Russia don’t have democracy, but they don’t have any war…So, answer yourself what is better for the world?
The US and EU fought a Long Cold war against Russia and won. unlike past Power house countries like Nazi germany, we Give the country Back to it’s people and direct them towards our way of handling dissidents, criminals and problem people as well as democracy and government. with Full Human Rights as defined in Geneva. Putin has no right to come in and dismantle all the progress that has been accomplished. this is an act of war. Russia is supposed to be a Huge Ali with the west, they are turning into a threat against democracy again. these countries simply STILL do not get it. Establish a Strong Human rights Policy in your country and (WallA) there is absolutely No basis for any type of confrontation with the coutry in question. The West Will not spend the Billions of dollars for defence if it is not needed. this whole thinbg with Russia is complete stupidity on Putin’s part. He will most definately lose again and this time the loose around Russia’s neck will be tighter than ever.
I would like to see how the conflict in Ossetia will play out…
I don’t think that Russia will come out of this stronger. I believe that neither the E.U. nor the U.S. will just let Ossetia break away from Georgia and join Russia, especially seeing how the Russians treated their own separatists in Chechnya.
The outcome of Ossetia will define Russia’s true power projection for the next decade, at least. I think that this attempted annexation of another countries territory will scare Europe and America enough to take a very tough stance towards Russia with possible economic implications on both sides. I also believe that this action will only encourage the post communist bloc countries to further their relations with the west and foment more rebellion among Russia’s own separatist groups.
The conflict in Ossetia was started by the Georgian Government and the Russians are not
to be blamed for it. Many civilians and 20 Russian peace keepers were killed by the Georgian
army. Though the Russians crushed the Georgian army (trained vigouresly by the U.S
West and Israel) the did not attempt to annex the breakway republics of Georgia. The U.S has
again created a cold war type situation by supporting the Georgian aggression and condemning
the Russian military response.
china kills people russia is cool but somewhat evil us is ressposible for iraq war and is somewhat evil sounding and every country starts wars and kills people
To highlight a set of scenarios, I noted that the U.S. did not condemn the Georgian invasion, nor did it suggest that they should withdraw. Instead, by stating that the U.S. supports “territorial integrity” and “sovereignty” of Georgia, it implicitly told the Russians to back off, since the two provinces are recognized internationally as part of Georgia. That’s problematic. I doubt that Georgia would have the courage to engage militarily if it did not have NATO’s encouragement, in particular of the United States. It’s also plausible that the U.S. was testing the waters on a resurgent Russia, seeing how far it could be pushed without consequences of any significance. An assertive Russia would indeed be a counterforce to the U.S., and those who have grown used to “yes, sir” would, I imagine, have a fit with accommodations on unfavorable terms. The U.S. needs Russia. The E.U. definitely needs Russia. The symbolic retaliation, therefore, would merely be a step of assuring themselves (U.S. and E.U.) that they were still important players. In the case of the U.S., which isn’t accustomed to not doing anything, I can see why these irrelevant steps (such as expelling Moscow from G8, canceling NATO-Russo military exercises) would be necessary…
It’s not smart to corner the Bear. When it lashes out, it ain’t pretty…
Once again I’ve made sure that the West uses double standarts and their massmedia can’t be believed.
Look here.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DTorXbca6v0&featu
They were simply interrupted when they started to tell their point of view,different from the goverment’s propoganda.
It’s really sad,that people are brainwashed (
Just who do the Russians think they are? When we invaded Iraq, it was for all the right reasons. We were invited there to spread democracy and free the Iraqi people from Saddam. The Russians are just in it for the money. They should have asked our permission first.
Eugenu, I agree with you on the interruption but if you watch these news that is what happens they always interrupt when it is time for a commercial because that is how the newscast is financed, and they ony have so much time. However it was clear that the girl said it was Georgian bombs etc. they were running from. So what double standards? You are Russian and want to make a point, fine, but we always understood that it was not just the Russians shooting. Did you watch the other videos where Russian tanks and bombs destroyed everything in their path? Also an operation such as this had to have been planned by Russia months in advance. Let me tell you with Putin you guys are going back to the old Soviet era and he is nothing less than a would be dictator.
I contend that America is a democratic dictatorship, no better, and possibly worse than Russia. I concur that the Russian military bombed targets outside South Ossetia, but in a military confrontation, the right to determine where a military strike would occur is not granted to only one of the participants. Saakashvili’s action was stupid; he paid a price for it. That’s not to say that Russia did not use overwhelming force, just that I wouldn’t go so far as to call Russia’s action “disproportionate,” when the United States has a stated position on “shock and awe” action. Iraq is one example, as are Afghanistan, Libya, and former Yugoslavia. Western criticism is hypocritical (at best) and morally corrupt (at worse). As for Putin, he’s far better than Bush. Under Bush, the U.S. image has gone down the toilet, the economy has gone down the toilet, the military is overstretched, moral standing in the world is nonexistent — and all this happened after a very prosperous era under the Clinton administration. Putin inherited a Russia that was in an economic pothole and rebuilt it and put it back on the world stage. He placed regional stability and Russia’s stability over democracy/freedom, and Bush placed ideological idiocy over everything else. Besides, democracy and freedom is a detriment to Russia’s security when Western intelligence agencies may use the transparent nature of democracy to overthrow a legitimate Russian government, sending it into turmoil with problems in Chechnya, and thousands of nuclear weapons — thanks but no thanks. If a working (and reasonable) dictatorship maintains stability in that region, so be it.
A military combat requires use of force, with certain kinds of weaponry and tactics. Tanks and bombs are a part of it, as are fighter and bomber runs. The non-NATO world doesn’t fight wars with sticks and stones, even though a lot of Americans seem to be of such an impression.
Not necessarily. The paramilitary units of MVD, deployed as peacekeepers in the Caucasus zone, are quite capable of handling a small scale military conflict. Georgia is no military superpower and the Russian Interior Ministry is not made up of uniformed dolls.
I don’t think your words will make much of an impact to those Russians, who have personally experienced both the Putin years and the years before it. With a popularity rating of 74% upwards, Putin is no more a dictator than the most democratic and popular American president has ever been. Putin wouldn’t take Russia to the Soviet era any sooner than Bush takes United States to the American Civil War era. The American frustration at the Putin administration is quite understandable, considering that Putin has prevented Russia from degrading into a Latin America situation.
After all, without Russia’s massive sacrifice in World War II, Europe - and possibly the entire world - would be greeting each other today with fascist salutes.
The God-blessed land of baseball, hot dogs, apple pie and Chevrolet is the only nation, it believes, that has the moral authority to convene military operations, or “preempt” suspected attacks, anywhere in the world. Apparently, it even denies other countries the right to act in self-defense, as was clearly the case with Russia in South Ossetia. As for Kosovo, Iraq, and Afghanistan, well, do as we say, not as we do. The U.S. National Security Strategy states: “The United States must defend liberty and justice… for all people everywhere.” But who will guard us from the guardians?So now the U.S. military is left with the vacuous-sounding “War on Terror,” as it shoots at shadows across the Middle East, while slashing civil liberties and social spending back home.
It never ceases to amaze me how naive European people can be… Trillions of US, British & other dollars and millons of American lives lost fighting the cold war to free people from Russians and they quickly forget our history of occupation by their friends in Russia..sad.
The Americans are dragging Europe towards another cold war against Russia. The classic example was their full support for Georgian agression against the Russians. It would be good for Europe if their Military Alliance
(NATO) take some bold decisions instead of dancing to the tunes of America.
@ Drew
Europe doesn’t need Americans to tell who to make friends with. Not from a nation that used ethnic cleansing to claim North America from its native population and then imported slaves from Africa to work the land (democracy and human tolerance?). Go and pick a history book kid, your rhetoric on Cold War reeks of ignorance, even by American standards.
Well, it’s a bit unfair, Jacques, to criticize AMERICANS for colonization of North America because at the time they were predominantly British subjects. It’s equally unfair to chastise them for their tiffs with democracy because at the time, it was at best an experimental form of governance. Human tolerance, however, has never been a major issue in the American culture — that is, there were those who gladly committed acts of racism, there were those who sort of accepted it as norm at the time (say, for example, the 1960s). By the way, Drew, Britain is a [West] European nation and has nothing to do with America except to reminisce in its long-gone empire; this alliance gives Britain that capacity. Drew, maybe it’s just me, but your last sentence simply doesn’t make any sense…
every country have its sovergn right to defend itself.
what ever russia does is in its interest , it is in the interest of all the citizens of the russian federation.
the usa on the other hand is in false perception of the growing threat from russia, the real threat to the united states is from peoples republic of china .
russia cannot be like a numb state and have its former allies influenced by its former rival attacking them.
Americans were more civilised when there was a Soviet Union. Now it’s nothing more than a bunch international bullying gangsters running around with big guns. Russia is right in reminding those cowboys that they ( Russia) are still a very significant nuclear armed state.
Can america stop poking their nose in other people’s business and start paying their international debts for a change ??