Europe In The Light of Resurgent Russia
Dmitri October 8th, 2007
The Kosovo Conflict of the mid-1990s and the expansion of NATO on Eastern Europe (former Russian ‘Sphere of Influence’) acted as a political and military alarm bell for Russia. The collapse of the Soviet Union led many western pro-democracy political analysts to believe that Russia would be on a prosperity path to be a global economic might. But their analyses went horribly wrong and post-Soviet Russian economy went downhill, along with its political and military influence. It was very much like Berlin in latter days of Weimar Republic, living in past glory with a bleak present and a dark future. The failure of western economic model on Russia gave rise to skepticism on whether one could count Russia any more as a superpower provided its large nuclear force was ignored.
A BBC News video on recent Russian bomber patrols over British airspace - a symbolism of Cold War power projection
Things started looking up after Vladimir Putin came to power in 1999. With strategic experience of an ex-KGB agent and diplomatic experience of an internationalist, Putin pulled Russian economy back from the post-Cold War downfall. Doomsday sayers who predicted a ‘Latin America’ situation for Russia were dissappointed after the energy and infrastructure boom put Russian on track with other global economic powers. Vladimir Putin became a hero of the Russian people by restoring their national pride (which was as weak as its economy due to several political failures). Putin also scored political and diplomatic brownie points for Russia by strengthening ties with West Asia and improving relationships with non Anglo-Saxon Western Europe.
Despite the political and economic restructuring of Russia in the early 21st century, European political analysts were slow and reluctant to acknowledge the reality of Russia’s resurgence. However the stupour dissappeared once Russia made a few critical political and military moves to assert its power projection in Europe. These moves included a tougher political stance on Kosovo issue, opposition to US missile shield in Poland, revival of nuclear strategic missile development, political manipulation of Europe by controlling gas supplies, revival of bomber missions, taking a pro-Iran political stance, Arctic missions with territorial claims, revived patrols of nuclear submarines in the Pacific and finally the testing of the largest non-nuclear bomb on September 11, 2007.
The economic resurgence and revival of power games has already created flutters in global politics, with speculations that the Cold War is not yet over. While the rest of the world looks at Russia as a counterforce against US to create a multipolar world, Europe sees Russia as a threat to its political stability. A strong and more powerful Russia will have a power projection in Europe which will be more effective that the weakening United States’ influence among European Union nations. Considering the nuclear deterrance of UK and France, a war between Russia and EU is highly unlikely quite sometime into the future. The worst that Europe is going to face in the light of Russia growing political and military assertiveness is a few changes in EU foreign policy to accomodate Russian interests in addition to their own.
- World Politics , Internationalism , Russia
- Comments(7)
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As an American I support whatever works for Russia. I won’t support democracy for Russia if it causes corruption and people to suffer.
America has a democracy, but it kills people all around the world. China and Russia don’t have democracy, but they don’t have any war…So, answer yourself what is better for the world?
I would like to see how the conflict in Ossetia will play out…
I don’t think that Russia will come out of this stronger. I believe that neither the E.U. nor the U.S. will just let Ossetia break away from Georgia and join Russia, especially seeing how the Russians treated their own separatists in Chechnya.
The outcome of Ossetia will define Russia’s true power projection for the next decade, at least. I think that this attempted annexation of another countries territory will scare Europe and America enough to take a very tough stance towards Russia with possible economic implications on both sides. I also believe that this action will only encourage the post communist bloc countries to further their relations with the west and foment more rebellion among Russia’s own separatist groups.
The conflict in Ossetia was started by the Georgian Government and the Russians are not
to be blamed for it. Many civilians and 20 Russian peace keepers were killed by the Georgian
army. Though the Russians crushed the Georgian army (trained vigouresly by the U.S
West and Israel) the did not attempt to annex the breakway republics of Georgia. The U.S has
again created a cold war type situation by supporting the Georgian aggression and condemning
the Russian military response.
china kills people russia is cool but somewhat evil us is ressposible for iraq war and is somewhat evil sounding and every country starts wars and kills people
To highlight a set of scenarios, I noted that the U.S. did not condemn the Georgian invasion, nor did it suggest that they should withdraw. Instead, by stating that the U.S. supports “territorial integrity” and “sovereignty” of Georgia, it implicitly told the Russians to back off, since the two provinces are recognized internationally as part of Georgia. That’s problematic. I doubt that Georgia would have the courage to engage militarily if it did not have NATO’s encouragement, in particular of the United States. It’s also plausible that the U.S. was testing the waters on a resurgent Russia, seeing how far it could be pushed without consequences of any significance. An assertive Russia would indeed be a counterforce to the U.S., and those who have grown used to “yes, sir” would, I imagine, have a fit with accommodations on unfavorable terms. The U.S. needs Russia. The E.U. definitely needs Russia. The symbolic retaliation, therefore, would merely be a step of assuring themselves (U.S. and E.U.) that they were still important players. In the case of the U.S., which isn’t accustomed to not doing anything, I can see why these irrelevant steps (such as expelling Moscow from G8, canceling NATO-Russo military exercises) would be necessary…
It’s not smart to corner the Bear. When it lashes out, it ain’t pretty…
Once again I’ve made sure that the West uses double standarts and their massmedia can’t be believed.
Look here.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DTorXbca6v0&featu
They were simply interrupted when they started to tell their point of view,different from the goverment’s propoganda.
It’s really sad,that people are brainwashed (