Aby The Liberal

Dmitri April 26th, 2007

Elections in France are always interesting and Europe, if not the world watches news of France with bated breath. France is one of the most influential countries in the European Union (EU) and represents a model democratic country for the world to emulate due to its strong stand on its ideals and convictions. Their refusal to take part on many unpopular and unjustified invasions by Anglo-US alliance made it an instant hero in most of Europe and all over the world. So the interest around the world on the 2007 elections.

The official campaign posters of the 12 candidates in French election of 2007 (Image from Wikimedia)

Considering the French people’s distaste for their politicians it is a surprise that the 2007 polls had an 85% turnout rate to cast their votes in the first round. The figure comes at 37.6 million of the 44 million electorate. It was a record turnout since 1965, one of the largest. Some would say a good sunshine or a renewed faith in power of democracy contributed to it. It also turns out that lot of the voters went to vote for the first time - mainly migrant Arab communities. For them it was payback time for them to show their displeasure of the nationwide hijab ban in schools and other regulatory laws. What was the actual cause for the high turnout? You decide.

The National Front, led by the racist Jean-Marie Le Pen got less than 11% of the votes. For National Front the result is shamefully worse than the 16.86% votes it received on 2002. In 2002 elections the 16.86% votes helped it remain in the fray for run off polls, much to public embarrassment in the land of Rights of Man, equality, metric system, beautiful women and wines. The new election result goes on to show that France is still one of the most liberal democratic and mature country of the world.

In 2002 elections , the candidates of socialist, centrist and Gaullist parties got 43% of the votes. In 2007 election, the same parties made 85% which shows the change and maturation of the French electorates. The results of the first round saw conservative Nicolas Sarkozy and socialist socialist Ségolène Royal qualify for the second round with Sarkozy getting 31% and Royal 26% of votes. 26% votes for a woman candidate Ségolène is impressive as she had to battle in her own party with other giants to represent socialists as a woman leader.

Ségolène Royal (left) and Nicolas Sarkozy (right) - favourites for the French presidency, 2007

Who is going to win? Well if we were to use a bit of arithmetical reasoning and a few media opinion polls it would peg in Nicolas Sarkozy for a victory by a margin of 7 to 8 points. Yet with the surprises the French electorate has shown in the first round it is too early to say anything for sure despite the high chances of Sarkozy. The outcome of the run-off poll which is scheduled for May 6 could be favoured towards Royal if Sarkozy lets loose is guard and starts to bask on his apparent coming victory. It would be best if Sarkozy and Royal could find a common ground between them so that the national interests could go above the personal ones.

Sarkozy might have to change or compromise his stance of pro-Americanism and his soft corner for Israel as it is disliked both by migrants and the homilies of France. Royal on the other hand would have to drive home the point to the French that her lack of experience in government and her policies shouldn’t hinder the qualities of her heart and head. Having a woman with favourable qualities in the top position in a stable and truly democratic France would boost a lot to the success of EU as a whole and France in particular.

Till then we cross our fingers and hope the uncertainty and stagnant GDP coupled with public debts left by the previous government does not lead to another revolution. The outcome of a revolution, if any revolution occurs could only be socialism leading to communism.

Dmtri Pavlov and Aby MC
Milan and Zurich

• World Politics , Internationalism
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