United States vs China - Consequences of a Nuclear War
Aby May 26th, 2007
A lot of us are interested to know what are the chances of China standing against USA in the advent of a nuclear war. As both the Chinese and American administration are quite aware of the destruction such a war could cause, they are unlikely to ever consider a nuclear confrontation against each other. Hence this is a brief analytical article just to stimulate a discussion on the probable scenarios in case such a war were to happen. We will start off with a brief political background, after which we’d get on to the scenario analysis.
The Dong Feng 5A ICBM which has a range of 13000+ km and can carry up to 3 H-bomb warheads capable of killing 7.5 million people in NYC in less than 10 seconds.
The Chinese military maintains a fairly credible nuclear deterrance against its adversaries, without investing in a jumbo nuclear arsenal like Russia or the US. It all began with China’s successful transformation to a nuclear power on October 16, 1964. It was a major landmark and an achievement of the Chinese people in their struggle to defend their nation and also immune themselves from nuclear blackmail by the Americans.
Initially, the Chinese government vehemently opposed nuclear armament which fell to deaf ears of the then nuclear nations. The continued threats and reluctance of Britain and America to accommodate their legitimate interests led Mao Zedong to make China a military and nuclear might, with enough second strike capability to hit back if attacked by the United States. The United States has been traditionally a war economy, that profited from wars taking place in far away nation. Hence Mao Zedong, who was at odds with American interests in its neighbourhood, considered it a risk to the Chinese people not to develop a credible nuclear defence against the US.
A nuclear war between China and United States will likely be a US first strike on China. Due to its smaller arsenal and limited number of ICBMs, China would not risk a first strike on the US mainland. Hence, we will assume a US first strike and what follows. In the advent of a US first strike on China, the targets are more likely to be Chinese ICBM silos, as the US would first attempt to eliminate chances of retaliation as much as possible. A US attack on China’s ICBM silos would kill at least 1.5 million to 20 million civilians depending on the type and the number of warheads used. Assuming that most of its land based silos have been destroyed, China’s choice of retaliatory strike would be its submarine based SLBMs. Assuming that 12 JL-2 SLBMs with MIRV warheads are launched from two Jin class submarines, at least 20 of the largest American cities could be targeted. This would result in extermination of 25 million to 100 million civilians, which would be more devastating on the US than the first strike would be on China.
If we take more realistic standards, a nuclear war between China and USA would result in much higher casualties for both sides, due to real world lack of considerations. One would most likely obliterate the other or worse, both countries would be destroyed before a truce or victory call could be reached. It is more likely that Americans would suffer the most because of their lower population and lack of creature comforts (that they are habituated to). The Chinese on the other hand, would have more suvivours because of their much larger population, which is also much more adapted to adversity and wars than the American people.
Possibly Related posts:
- Nuclear Missile Forces - USA vs China vs Russia
- Nuclear ICBMs of United States and Russia - Past and Present
- China vs United States: Nuclear Arms Race
- China’s MAD Nuclear Deterrance Against USA
- Can the United States Win a War Against China?
- America , Military , World Politics
- Comments(79)
Loading ...
america is awesome and Chinese Government is just plain evil. lol we could blow chinese missiles out of the sky.
Evil Chinese…depends on who you ask, at least they never invade nobody and rape 12 year old girls and kill her whole family in the next room. Then burn their bodies. Ya gotta love American military huh. Go China, defend peace!
@ best america - It is impossible for US to shoot hypersonic ballistic missiles out of sky, at least in the present world. Moscow is the only city in the world to have working and capable Anti-Ballistic Missile defence systems.
For your talk on how Chinese are evil, I think Jake makes a good point.
lol @ bestamerica
Interesting article! And let’s hope it never happens.
However, China has about a grand total of 32 warheads capable of hitting the USA. While the USA has well over 5,000 that can reach around the globe. A complete mismatch. Especially since America’s Trident II D-5 (submarine launched) missiles, with an accuracy of about 90 meters, can take out all of them in a first strike (by placing each Chinese silo well within the crater of a 100-475 kiloton ground burst).
Minuteman IIIs, as fixed silo weapons, would not likely be used in an exchange. No need for them in this conflict (”use them or lose them” as they say, only applies in conflicts where the opponent has enough offensive weapons to conduct a first strike).
China could only do damage, as massive as it would be, in a first strike against American cities. Which would of course result in thousands of American nukes being launched against military, industrial AND civilian targets throughout China. A dreadful day for humanity…But America would be the decisive victor.
Obviously this could change within 20 years or so, as China continues to research and develop better delivery systems and warhead design.
Take care,
CWJ
China’s nuclear stockpile, as claimed by the PLA is 350 - 400. And as we know, the CPC government of China, often tries to unquote its military budget, military developments and nuclear warheads unlike Russia. http://cns.miis.edu/research/china/nuc/nstock.htm
As for the damages caused, China’s military is based as a defensive countermeasure against US and Russian attacks. If US were to target Chinese fixed SILOs, it would be able to cause damage in the first wave of strike. But as is evident, the mobile launcher and the JL series of SLBMs will be free for the Chinese counter attack which could then have disastrous consequences.
A Chinese strikeback against US would target primarily on the 20 highly populated US cities, taking out 50 - 100 million of population, after which US might be a victor in the long run but not a winner as the loss of its population would weigh too heavily. This act of deterrance that China’s is capable of, prevent such a nuclear holocaust from happening.
If it comes to a nuclear war, Russia will join the fray as attacks and US capture of China would be against Russia’s strategic interests and national security. And we know what Russia is capable of on a nuclear front….
It is very true that China has 300-400 nuclear weapons. However, like I said only about 32 are capable of striking the United States: the DF-5 ICBM (max total of 20) and the JL-1 SLBM (max total of 12) . None of the other weapons have the range. http://cns.miis.edu/research/china/nuc/nstock.htm
And there is only one single submarine capable of carrying the JL-1.
In reality neither country would ever initiate a war, conventional or nuclear, with the other. But it’s interesting to discuss over a nice cup of tea
32 DF-5A and 12 JL-1 missiles have been deployed so far. That would not mean that China cannot manufacture and deploy more if a war like situation arises given that the time required to successfully manufacture and deploy an ICBM is less than 5 days. Even if we take the current available and deployed Chinese strategic ballistic missiles into count the the maximum yield of their nuclear warhead, the strike could cause significant loss for USA.
A single 3 MT thermonuclear warhead launched on a DF - 5 detonated a minimum of 300 metres above ground in urban New York or Los Angeles would have a blast radius of 9 km killing 1.2 million on spot. Then the radiation fire and nuclear storm would add about another 0.5 million to the casualties. The 32 available strategic nuclear missiles of China are capable of eliminating 50 million in the first wave as a retaliatory strike. And that is a conservative minimal estimate, it could be as much as 100 million which accounts for 33% of US population.
The losses would be drastic and serious for USA even if it eventually ends up victorious, that such a possibility would prevent US from attempting a war against China as evident from the change of stance since 1964 on the Taiwan issue. Yes, a war scenario is a risky proposition but the deterrence works well to prevent the risky situation. A country can get ahead only after it is militarily secure.
And let us not forget that America’s 5,000+ nukes is a strong deterrent against China ever moving against Japan, South Korea, or even Taiwan.
This is a very unlikely scenario, but weirder things have happened.
Good night Aby,
-CWJ
on cjw’s comments even though the united states has said it will defend taiwan at all cost i highly doubt we would risk launching nuclear weapons at china over taiwan a military battle is likley over the country but after it has been over taken the us would most likley try a diplomatic solution to the war and if that dosent work well hello world war 3
@CWJ - I would like to mention that according to US DoD report to Congress that PRC’s DF-5A is capable of being MIRVed with upto 4-6 warheads. At a minimum estimate gives a warhead payload of 20 X 4 = 80. A Xia class submarine can carry upto 12 nuclear tipped JL1 SLBM missiles so no issues here. The DF4 series ICBMs are also capable of reaching the west coast of continental US if launched from East Coast of PRC and there are at least 12 of them.
This adds up to 80+12+12=104 nuclear warheads which China can strike US with, quite lethal and not a bad deterrance.
“And let us not forget that America’s 5,000+ nukes is a strong deterrent against China ever moving against Japan, South Korea, or even Taiwan.”
Not likely that one. US wouldn’t risk a nuclear devastation for Taiwan, Japan or South Korea and even for China these territories are too trival to risk a full war. No one wins a decisive victory in a nuclear war as the devastation on infrastructure and economy will set back a country centuries behind.
Good points given by Abraxor………….. Nuclear War is not a simple matter…… if US tries to make nuclear war, it would be worriying for that dreadful mistake………………………..
the united states already has laser weaponry that is mounted inside modified b 52 bombers and because of are satilites and radar we would be able to see any missiles comeing at us and blow them out of the sky at the speed of light none of chinas missiles would hit us. as a result of this the united states can make any demand they want and if china refuses we can turn china into the solar systems second sun
doubtful michel… your calculation has some rather large holes in it.
Russia wouldn’t remain neutral if the USA tries the genocide of 1.3 billion people, they would intervene… forcefully. Both the satellites and the radar wouldn’t work for very long because Russia would start with several high altitude bursts. After the EMP, no more missile interception by USA, and you’d be just as toast as the Chinese.
Just believe it… any missile defense system can be circumvented with enough warheads and a good strategy. Russia is still capable of destroying the USA and likely to remain so for a long time.
While it can be debated who would “win” a nuclear war out of the big three, I think the real threat is not from there, but from the small and less stable countries who would see using a nuclear weapon as a must against one of the world powers. If a smaller country were to use such action, the retalitory action from China/USA/Russia would have to be extremely thought out as to not trigger responses from other countries. When one country starts throwing nukes, everyone will get very concerned. An ugly day for humanity, no matter who is initially involved.
Where did you hear about U.S. soldiers raping people?
@ Ethan - If you have been living in caves all along and never heard of repeated rapes by US forces in Iraq, read these incidents, which (unfortunately for Americans) came into light because of a guilty consicence who videotaped them -
http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/08/07/iraq.familyslain/index.html
http://www.aztlan.net/iraqi_women_raped.htm
http://www.radicalleft.net/blog/_archives/2006/7/1/2078205.html
http://www.zmag.org/content/showarticle.cfm?ItemID=5653
Rapes by American soldiers is barbaric and systematic, not very unlike Japanese rapes of Chinese during the World War 2. Unfortunately, the American media that reports on Iraq is tightly controlled by US government. Moreover the few rapes that come into light are those which got videotaped AND the videotape was leaked to non-American media houses like Al Jazeera. Just a tip of the iceberg, for every videotaped and reported rapes, there are at least 20+ rapes and murders that go unreported and unknown. There won’t be much initiative to report this seeing what happened to the Al Jazeera journalists and headquarters after they dared to report Abu Gharib incidents - their journalists were abuducted, tortured by US forces in Guantanamo without trial and their headquarters bombed. It is Americans who bring the problems on them, it is time for some self introspection and look for their own faults before pointing fingers at others. As we say, the pot shouldn’t be calling the kettle black.
@ michel - This is the stupidest thing I have heard in quite a long while. If its a video game fantasy, I will congratulate on your vivid imagination. If you are serious then I’d impress on you that laser weapons which the US government spent over 51 billion dollars on, turned to be smoke and mirrors. So much so that the Congress cut off the budget as they have not shown to be credible against any missile that travels faster than 3 km/sec (even a 3rd generation ICBM travels @11 km/sec). We have seen from the recent US cold foot in China’s aggression and military policies that the United States cannot make any demand on Chinese. All they have been doing is submit mammoth reports to Congress for members to read during coffee time. I think you’d better update youself on facts before making ignorant remarks that makes Americans look immature and stupid.
@Sasha
great work this is true wars may cause rape or in Americas case, I don’t think they should have the spunk to turn up here again or comment about this rape topic
All the techno babble aside the United States may well end up in a Nuclear war one of these days soon (most likely of all nations to be involved first strike imo) but we could never win it any more than anyone else can. Ask yourself this, if the Romans had such a weapon in the waning day’s of their empire and they were declared villians by those who once sought their protection or favor - would they have used it?
I think the answer is yes, not because they were Villans or because the average Roman cared about the Glory of Rome but because they were afraid and would do anything to protect their way of life.
And in the end I think thats most likely, America is stretched thin both in terms of our economy and our Military trying to protect our interest and borders (literal and virtual) as were the Romans in the end.
We cant understand how the world blames us when genocide happens in places like rwanda and we dont intervene but condems us when we do like in the balklands. No one seems angry at the French for whats going on in the Congo? Or the Chinese for Tibet? Cant remeber them going in to stop ethnic cleansing or rioting in some poor nation like somalia?
It seems we are surrounded by enemies both declared and not and allies that wont help us save a few. We know that no one can win a Nuclear war in the end, the Global economy would be destroyed, disease, famine and radiation would kill billions regardless of who starts it or ends it.
I think most Americans would support it to protect our way of life in the end - go figure.
And as for the comments about Rape by US Troops I’m not saying it does not happen but I suggest you read some history books about War and get back to us on that. In fact google what the Russians did when they took Berlin at the end of WW2 or what the Serbs did in Croatia recently.
It’s deplorable and it pains all Americans to think we are capable of such a horror but it happens god forgive us. I ask you this - do you think your Country’s Military so pious as to not have individuals who would visit this evil on helpless civilians if they thought the could get away with it?
It’s not an excuse just the truth about about our ugly human condition American or otherwise.
Nuclear War?
I must say, that all the conjecture and rhetoric is mind blowing, however facts are facts. The chinese military is and has always been based on sheer numbers for it’s projected strength. It has long been known that there technical prowess is greatly mocked and much inflated to their actual capabilities of any type of first strike. furthermore, the technology they do portray is stolen, and antiquated from the former soviet union, the united states and france. Albeit it has improved in the last decade, greatly impart to some very disturbing,and short sighted trading of technologies under the clinton administration. But, I must stick on point that America’s strength is due, to a near global superority in advanced technical systems i.e ground based gps targeting, incredibly effective satelite targeting with submarine launched ballistic missles which are a MIRV system, and a tactical first strike weapon soley designed for just such a mission. However, the targets at that time were solemnly more formidable in the Soviet union. In addition there are now 3 highly accurate ABM systems deployed throughout the northern atlantic theater, the northeastern-asian pacific theater and the 3rd is to be deployed late ‘08 early 09′ in the polish-czech regions of eastern europe. Which in large part is why we are seeing the russian military begin to flex and portray a stronger shadow, Unfortunately with this extremely advanced ABM technology breakthrough it does open the possibility of hard times with Russia, which is not entirely it’s design strategy. Russia knowing this systems capabilities,know this puts it in an extremely vulnerable position. However due to the increased revenue from it’s energy resources as of late, it has began to now spend huge amounts on a very simular system to feel protected from what it belives is a american/ E.U dominance. But, that being said, any conflict with China regarding the release of nuclear weapon systems would be the almost certain destruction of the paper dragon as we know it. And any thought that a substantial chinese infliction of damage on American soil or it’s population centers is at best a huge roll of the dice. Being a military officer, and scholar i do realize that no system is perfect especially advanced electronic warfare systems, but redundancy is a major part of the design in ALL ADVANCED U.S WEAPONS TECHNOLOGY. China would be better suited to amass it’s 795 million troops and take us on in a conventional assault. All points being, a very dark day in Mankinds history. I usually stand on the sidelines and look through the window on such subjects, but when i read all of your incredibly bluazey, uniformed opinons, I felt the need to grab a few of you by your knickers and try to instill the premise to go to your respective regions of the globe, and shout out on high, loud and clear that this madness is not acceptable. That we as human beings, people, mothers, fathers, sisters, brothers, cousins, nieghbors, farmers, teachers, students cannot, mind you, will not allow such an act, no a hanious crime to take place. I take my oath to defend my country against all enemies, foriegn and DOMESTIC seriously. But if I was to allow such action to occur, I ask you…. What good is my country at that point, what good is this gorgouse gift, Earth. To any of us ever again.
Alright farmer-general, give it to me straight: Your ABMs in Alaska, do they work by shooting down the nukes over the Pacific/Arctic? Or are they pointed the other way and take them down over northern Canada?
UUUUmmmmmm are we all forgetting something here. In Nuclear war there will be NO victors for the ecosystem of the planet (the only one we have and the one both sides depend on) will be so severely damaged by the war that most countries will be destroyed maybe not by nuclear fire but by starvation and society’s breakdown on both sides of the conflict. If you think the current economic crisis is bad you “ain’t seen nothing yet” if nuclear war occurs. If the big nuclear players use their weapons we are all stuffed even if we weren’t involved. Its likely down here in the South Pacific we have the best chance of surviving how big that chance is who knows but it won’t be pretty for anyone. The global ecology will be so damaged even if you won the war you would be destroyed by the peace afterwards. Both sides need to eat.
US foreign policy always interfere with other countries internal problems,making war around the world killing people.
What are u proud of ?? History prove starting from Korean and Vietnam war US troop came home with Defeat n body bags. Next Afganistan and Irak will also come home with defeat. Just wait n c.
Now U must concern about US$ may collapse if it does then you will be robbed n the whole world too.
Read History how cowardly US troop ran away from Vietnam left friends behind.
The only country at the moment that would use a nuclear assault without second thought is North Korea. China and America are smarter than to involve themselves in such a deadly scenario. It will be a tit for tat experience until either (1) all the nuclear war heads are exhausted or (2) either country is destroyed to the brink of total collapse from continuance of war. Militarily, the Chinese know that America is their greatest threat, and the Americans know that China is up there on the top of the list probably only second to Russia.
One thing is certain that a nuclear assault by either country will not be of waste- in terms with strategy and objective. Millions will die. Some countries dont have a population of a million people, so, just contrasting the fact that it may be equivalent to wiping out an entire nation.
A nuclear assault has only ever been used in war against Japan. There are slim chances of a nuclear strike in the coming future. However, if another World War begins than it will be far worse than any previous ones, that is for sure. Lets hope that no such occasion arises where China and America come to such seriousness to using nuclear assault against the other, because than we will not care who wins or loses, but will result to a failure of words to describe the future to come.
Nuclear war will happen. There are some many clowns in power that those big bombs dropping will inevitably happen. However, the US can shoot down nukes. But not the ones China holds with maneuverable warheads, that move out of the way of defense missiles. And China has in the past threaten to pre-emptively strike Los Angeles; if America even attempts to defend Tiawan. Regardless of our striking back capabilities, the world would quickly be plunged into a nuclear winter. Every one would die. And it would therefore be better to be at the epicenter of an explosion and go quickly, lest the carnage of armageddon.
A shoe thrown at the face of US President has all the answer, USA has lost its respect in the whole world, and China is a respected country in whole world.
If a war happens between China and US most of the countries on that day will support China and USA will be left alone. Every country will attack USA; even Britain will not be left behind in destroying USA.
If no war happens, even than days are not far when all 52 states of USA will split and there will be no USA and USA will not remain a super power any more, than China will take the place.
#History ,
forget about USA’s disintegration or Nuclear war and all that non-sense. Right now the entire world is worried about the biggest headache of the present times , that is pakistan. Bcoz the one and the only thing that Pakistan can be “proud” of is it being the largest exporter of pan-islamic terrorism and the rest of the world is not amused with u paki’s. So forget about entire attacking america , worry about the same entire world attacking pakistan and destroying it to end terrorism.
I dont think China would ever be able to hit any US city with Nuclear Weapons, since the US goverment has been building a huge anti-missiles shield made with the latest technologies. And i also think that on the first days of war, US bombers would penetrate the chinese defences and hit their missile launchers sites, nuclear stocks, important cities (shangai, Hong kong, Beinjing) and it would cause a great impact on the chinese military capabilities. It would of course be followed by the US invasion by land in china. US Marines and US Army troops supported by the US Navy and US Air Force would be unstoppable, and would smash the chinese ground troops pretty easily. They would reach Beijing within months and cause the unconditional chinese surrender.
About the control of the skies, the US Air Force would clearly control the skies, since they have much more advanced airplanes.
On the sea, the US would also lead because of its large and powerful fleet. The chinese Navy would have no chance.
This is only what would have happen to China, but of course other countries would involve themselfs in the conflict, probably creating the World War 3. And talking about an apocalyptical conflict involving huges nuclear attacks, i dont think any country would be dumb enough to start such thing. So, my conclusion is: Victory for the United States of America.
@#sss_sms
Why is it that every Indian has to have his two-pennies worth of anti-Pakistani propaganda. This discussion concerns the US and China. Could you at least have the sense to keep to this subject.
China has deployed small numbers in comparison to the USA, because in reality even one nuclear hit would devastate ,kill and maime thousands. these injured would require medical treatment.The medical facilities would be stretched to their limit, forget having to deal with a few nukes. The USA would come out badly in terms of its long term goals. As a superpower it cannot afford to be attacked in a manner which would see its major industries being destroyed, as this would have a major impact on its infrastructure rebuilt capability and eventual decline from the number one position. A nation can only Project Power if it has a strong economy.
former-general, your perception on China nuclear force & missile technology is history. Over the last ten years, China had improved quantitive and qualitative of her long range ICBM. They had also retired some older ICBM resting in the Silos.
Besides Silos, she had many mobile launch sites spread over China and cannot be detected by your space satellites because they are hiden in caves. She can now launch 2nd strike with multiple nuclear war heads both from land and sea. Her six “JIn Class” nuclear submarines can squat at the Western coast of North America for months and ready to retaliate if her homeland is being attacked.
So far, your ABM defence system is only 75% successful and the test was against fix flight path of incoming missile. China has in place DF-15 (DONG FENG “EAST WIND” )missile with maneuvering warheads and decoys that can penetrate your ABM Defences. It is also a threat to your aircraft carriers with their maneuvering anti-ship missiles travelling at hypersonic speed.
1n 2008, China had exported more Technology based products than US and she has made rapid improvement in their R & D particularly in Military Technology.
Last five years China had reduced greatly new weapon purchases from Russia because she is able to produce on her own.
Americans like you have stero-type thinking and prejudice and you always think China is so backward. According to Thomson Reuters Scientific spokesman Mr. Bob Stembridge China is set to dominate the the patent landscape by 2012 to become the World’s leading innovator. Inventions from China have been growing at a faster rate than from any region in the World. She was once the most Technological country of the World long before US was born and she is now back.
*WilliamMarshall
What a load of bollocks, even if the USA could land troops onto China’s mainland without heavy losse’s there would be no way that they could make China surrender. China’s armry is no walk over, they command over 2.5 million troops who are highly trainned and desciplined and can also call on 5 million reserve’s not to mention their other capabilitie’s in terms of tanks and aircraft and their navy would put up a good fight too. I’m sorry but with no disrespect to America’s military strength and capabilitie’s this scenario would be no walk in the park and would result in huge losse’s for both side’s. Anyone who thinks or say’s otherwise is just plain ignorant or is’nt the sharpest knife in the draw. Get realistic and stop treating it as a bloody computer game or movie.
New to this site but not to this topic.
There’s a whole lot of polemic expectations being thrown here around without much in the way of basic knowledge of US strategic policy and history. So I’ll try to correct some assumptions and see where the debate goes…
First: What is MAD, really? The commonly used definition of “mutually assured destruction” does NOT mean that an enemy has to destroy every city, military installation, or nuclear weapon in the US. What most strategists since the 1950’s take it to mean is the capability to damage the US to a degree that it drastically falls from its current position economic and military dominance, a state that is completely unacceptable as a possible rational option for a US leader to take. Of course, killing a significant portion of the US population and incapacitating any ability to respond is one extreme form of MAD.
However, MAD can be achieved by the guaranteed capability only to destroy even two or three US cities. The successful detonation of MIRV or a megaton single warhead on any two of the major 10 cities or so in the US would result in 5 - 15 million deaths within a year. Disaster relief would have to become the primary focus of the entire federal government and much of the economy, besides pursuing a counterattack (assuming that there were no subsequent strikes). Wall Street would utterly implode, with every sane investor wanting to draw all money out of stocks; and with that, the era of global free trade would drop below levels not seen before 1800. Even assuming the destruction of the enemy nation, no major environmental damage caused by the world, and a resumption of “peace”, the US would certainly lose its prime economic and military position in the world. The EU, developing nations like India, and Russia would certainly take advantage of the fact that a huge proportion of the US GDP is used for recovery/war. They would outbid and outbuy the US in all strategically important resources, especially energy in the Mideast. While America’s NATO allies may support the US during the war, after the aggressor (assuming it’s China) is destroyed, Europe would realize that the world again is multipolar, with the US no longer being the sole superpower. The EU will either coalesce into unitary body to counterbalance the US and the developing states, or break down into Great Power politics again. There would be no further guarantees to buy US bonds in a situation where the future economic position was not assured. With huge chunks of income still being used for reconstruction of devastated infrastructure (the WTC disaster cost about $30 billion in government spending in cleanup and recovery; think about what a whole city would cost), the US would be forced either to keep increasing military spending to try to maintain a dominant position while choking all potential for growth, or cede its military position, withdrawing its strategic bases and assets and becoming only a regional power. I could go on, but this is sufficient to show the damage of just two or three successful strikes.
The point is, this “best-case” scenario is so bad that no rational US leader would ever select an option that would lead to it for any plausible strategic, military, or economic goals. Not to save Taiwan nor South Korea, nor to maintain military supremacy in Asia. Hence, even the nuking of two or three American cities is assured destruction for all practical purposes of deterrence.
Second: Does China have first-strike capabilities to cause the above assured destruction? Most certainly, yes. There is plenty of evidence that SDI and Bush’s missile shield are prototypes at best, and are questionable even in intercepting a lone missile launched from N. Korea. If China fired all of its SSBM (with MIRV) from its 5 or more newest submarines, along with its ICBM assets, at population centers, certainly at least two or three warheads would land in major cities, as mentioned above.
Third: Does China have first-strike capability that can destroy enough US assets to prevent MAD? Of course not. China has an avowed no-first strike policy, and they certainly would be “a second sun” if they did do this, with the complete destruction of its population centers and probably future civilization/territory usefulness with just a fraction of the US’s retaliatory capabilities.
Fourth: Does the US have the ability to neutralize China’s second strike capability with its own first strike attack? This is a critical question whose answer is currently unknown. It is plausible that the US could neutralize all ground-based ICBMs and mobile launchers in China, if we hand-wave the US having correct intelligence about where they are. But even without any interloping from Russia (which is almost guaranteed to happen), some of China’s SSBM will probably launch successfully, possibly resulting in an “assured destruction” scenario as mentioned above. But this debate is almost entirely moot, since ..
Fifth: Would the US ever use a first nuclear strike against China without being attacked by nuclear weapons first? This is a resounding no, unless circumstances change so drastically that they are completely unforeseeable. While the US has never explicitly declared a no-first strike policy, it is common understanding that it would never use it unless it was under imminent threat of nuclear attack AND it could possibly avert MAD if it did do a first strike. If there is MAD even with a US first strike, there is no benefit in doing it. Furthermore, it would take a leader on several orders even more extreme than Cheney and friends to consider using a nuclear first strike to deal with any situation that did NOT present an immediate nuclear threat to the US. Which would be the circumstances in all likely conflicts with China, one examples of which follows:
Sixth: Confrontation over Taiwan - Taiwan elects a pro-independence government that actually does declare independence, resulting in China using military force against Taiwan. This is a scenario that is less and less likely to occur as the US is more preoccupied with the Mideast and the recession, which Taiwan knows will make the US much less likely to intervene in another regional fight. However, assuming the situation does arise, it is doubtful that the US would even intervene militarily. Given the precarious occupations in the Mideast, and a public tired of war, it is almost certain that the American people would not support a dangerous war with China, even it was completely limited to the region. Enough damage would be done by the simple opening of hostilities between the two countries, in terms of economics. Say goodbye to hundreds of billions in Chinese loans per year, and America’s biggest trading relationship; say hello to a decade of depression. Still, let’s assume that the US does decide to intervene. It is almost certain that it would only use conventional air and naval power to help Taiwan; the idea of sending ground troops into China, or conversely using ground troops to try to protect Taiwan against an invasion if the China wins the naval battle, is completely unlikely. The most likely targets for US would be Chinese vessels, airfields, and aircraft. The mostly likely targets for China would be the military installations on Taiwan and American ships, including aircraft carriers (using its swarm of disposable, small submarines).
Why would this war not spread to Chinese cities, or American assets or territory elsewhere? We have the previous examples of the Korean War and the brief Chinese wars against India, the USSR, and Vietnam to instruct us. Truman was completely unwilling to attack into China territory after reaching the Yalu river, and fired MacArthur after he suggested using tactical nuclear weapons. This was at a time when the Soviets had less than ten (probably less than five) nuclear weapons; the rest of the world had none; and America had over a hundred nukes, giving it complete nuclear primacy and almost certainly allowing it to force the USSR or China to capitulate had it used them. However, the US did not entertain using nukes even in tactical situations, even after suffering 50,000 dead and having divisions forced into desperate retreat several times. It was, and still is, simply unthinkable in US policy to cause tens of millions of civilian casualties with nukes, unless the fundamental survival of the US was at stake. Further, in China’s wars with Russia, India, and Vietnam, China purposely limited all combat to the border region in question, carefully avoiding even air sorties beyond that narrow area. This was true even when fighting against their most dangerous major enemy, the USSR, in 1969, at a time when Chairman Mao was at his worst and China was in the Cultural Revolution. These wars show the rule of Chinese policy not to expand border wars beyond the immediate area where territorial sovereignty is threatened. Note that China did back down in some of these cases, even when it didn’t win the border war.
Hence: in a present-day Taiwan strait war, with much more rational Chinese leaders and the danger of MAD between the countries, it would be highly unlikely for there to be escalation to nuclear war. Since this is the most dangerous foreseeable casus belli, I see little threat of a nuclear war occurring between the US and China.
Summary: China does have MAD with US; however, it’s highly unlikely ever to be invoked.
@M.Robinson - “Why does every Indian have his two penny’s worth at Anti-Paki Propaganda”?
Tell me we’re wrong.Tell me that Pak is not a global headache.Tell me Pak isnt going about having terrorist training factories. Tell me that pakis arent funding and supporting cross border infiltration, tell me pak din design and implement the mumbai massacre, tell me the talibans arent building a base outta pak, tell me Im wrong or im lying.
You have no idea how it feels to have a renegade neighbor who is all of the above and more. ]
So, ofcourse you wdnt understand why Indians have our 2 penny’s worth at anti-pak propaganda because there is nothing / no civilized person in his right mind that is pro pak.
Response to # best america
“america is awesome and Chinese Government is just plain evil. lol we could blow chinese missiles out of the sky.” What a typical arrogant and egotistic American you are. I feel sorry for you that you would consider you country the best at everything, and you know, there are a lot more tactics involved than simply smashing warheads into each other in the sky, but I guess other tactics would probably be too complex for your ultra Americanized (stupid) brain to process. And besides, Chinese people are a lot more adaptable and intelligent than Americans based on countless pieces of evidence.
@ best america, you are very pro American with basis for your attack at China.
Anyway, Once the wine is opened, it must be drunk. Once China and US have the Nukes, they will have to use it one way or the other. So you people be ready to die.
May you all rest in peace. +
No war shall be happening… Nuclear for peace will be the best cause for human being.
Indian, Pakistani, American, Russian, Japanese… etc… are classification we make in reality.
At first we are humans.
Its good to have patriotism but shouldn’t be in others risk.
It’s easy to destroy but it’s very difficult to create.
No War…. Only peace…
I am alarmed that people are talking as if the U.S. is capable of defending against Chinese nuclear missiles, and can attack China at will.
I have a Ph.D. in physics, and I can tell you that no country — the United States included — is capable of stopping inter-continental ballistic missiles. A missile defense shield is the realm of science fiction.
Regardless, such an attack would not be justified. I disagree with the assessment that a nuclear war would be worse for the U.S. than China. However, these are separate issues.
So the Chinese are painted as usual the bad guy. The US is perenially the good guy . So the ending is the good guy defeats the bad guy.Hang on for a moment.The Chinese are building their defences to blunt an American attack. Is this a crime. China won’t fire first because it is the weaker guy.At this point in time all the aces are in US hands.the PLA are nibbling it away . Yes in a showdown the firepower of the US forces is 5000 to one if you consider nw.Can the Pentagon guarantee to the president no PLA nm can reach US territory if US forces attack the PLA military?I am afraid the answer is no way. The PLA are going to develop a second strike capability which would be enough to devastate the CONUS no matter what the US does be it anit missile shield,more nw,.laser beam,missile arrow,etc.As one guy said:In 1962 kennedy said any missile launcehed from Cuba on the US will require a similar resonse on the Soviet union.Similarly any US attack,be it conventional/non conventiona/nuclear on China from non US territory would require PLA like ,response.Guam/Okinawa/Misawa/Japan S korea will be pulverised.The PLA aint weak like in 1996. This 2010. Surely they must have factored in US strikes and are preparing for it.If the Chinese can send somone into space the technology to upgrade their weapon system is obviously within reach and good enough to deter the US who are itching for a fight.
This Earth is not only for humans but also for other lives. Killing somebody is the biggest sin ever made by any man.
How will u feel when your father,mother or lover will die?
(May God give them a long life!)
Then what do all u mean by war?
feedback…
Fortunately the views expressed here are mostly fanatical and have no basis in reality… the Chinese are predominantly a peace loving people as are most Americans, Russians and Indians… these nations have nuclear weapons for defence and there governments are stable… It is patently obvious that any nuclear incident in the world would affect us all (as we saw in chernobyl) albeit on a much smaller scale than what is being discussed here… Taiwan is often seen as a potential trigger (one of many) for the onset of world war…yet surely if China took Taiwan by force and the rest of the world stood back, before long China would realise it had inherited Northern Ireland type situation…also you cannot subdue a nation like that without losing the respect and suport of the rest of the world as the Americans have realised from there invasion of Iraq…OUR worlds leaders need to work together…and represent us (the people) who are quite happy to live and work together…maybe its time for a world government and a single currency…or is that too civilised.the way foreward is as a united human race not as a band of waring tribes..after all, our values are pretty much the same…
American economy will fail before their is a war they are heavlly relied on chinese factory to produce goods and when china and us relation breaks america will have a major setback, when america does launch an attack on China which will mainly attack the silos china will attck La NYC Chicago etc and cause around 50 million to 100 million death that is 33% of us population. america has already blacken their name on the international stage all of their allies exp Canada soon will stop supporting them as they will also have blacken their name. China is not evil they will not back down as they have been invaded for 800 years and culture for 5000 years compared to 200 years. lastly America got their ass handed back by china in korean war they had techonolgy a century ahead of china at time and still china pushed them back from their bordors to 38 parell and think about 60 years later i am pretty sure when half of us population dies america will surrender
No one will win a Nuclear War. We will all lose big time and World war 4 will be fought with stone spears if there is anyone left. Please stop all the “Us against Them” rhetoric. We will all be stuffed and all you saber rattlers on both sides of this arguement should be ashamed of yourselves!!
Wow.
Interesting exchange. As an American who has extensive travel experience, I must say that most Americans are ignorant of world affairs. And I realize this converstion is about MAD, nukes, and winners…but indulge me for a moment: First, this is no more or less than a heated exchange about the “best” soccer team, or cricket team, or whatever…so no doubt Americans will be pro-America, Indians pro-India, et al. Can’t fault anyone for picking their own soccer team. Tell me this: why is it that a good portion of my taxes have gone overseas to foreign countries for humanitarian and other purposes since I can remember? Funny how quickly we forget how much Americans have done for the “world” over the past few decades. The world still indulges in American invention and innovation…the ipod and ipad, medical advances, 1.25 BILLION for Haiti. Sure, we are not perfect, but many of you have lost perspective…it’s easier to hate than it is to educate yourself on the facts and remember your history. Here’s another interesting perspective: think for one minute about Cosmic time, and the universe…look at all the shitty planets in our solar system…and how impossible the odds were against the creation of life-sustaining earth…and what do we do? Screw it up with “my dick is bigger than yours” actions and conversations about how many millions of people we could kill, to what end?
In closing, I guess the only negative thing I have to say in this whole interesting exchange is that Canadians have been living under the umbrella of American defenses for too long. I’m sick of seeing Canadians iin Europe with Canadian flags on thier backpacks (so they won’t be mistaken for being Americans), bad mouthing Americans. As far as I am concerned, if there’s any country the US should invade, it’s Canada. Cheers.
I have to agree with the paragraph from Johhny Appleseed……
Quote “it’s easier to hate than it is to educate yourself on the facts and remember your history. Here’s another interesting perspective: think for one minute about Cosmic time, and the universe…look at all the shitty planets in our solar system…and how impossible the odds were against the creation of life-sustaining earth…and what do we do? Screw it up with “my dick is bigger than yours” actions and conversations about how many millions of people we could kill, to what end?”…end Quote.
Too true if people are actually meaning what they are saying on this post.
However the last paragraph probably doesn’t help your argument much.
I have to stress the need for the world to get rid of nuclear weapons and other just as destructive WMDs. The China, Russia, USA, France, Britain, Israel, Pakistan, India (and anyone else I have forgot to mention) who stockpile these weapons seriously need to consider whether it is worth having them when the most likely outcome would be that you would all destroy yourselves just as much as you would destroy your enemies. There would be no victory for anyone.
I don’t understand why it is assumed that the US would not retaliate against Chinese cities. I also don’t get why China would automatically target America’s most populated cities rather than military targets (granted many military targets would be near large population centers), as that would give the US the justification to target their largest cities, especially considering the US arsenal can do a lot more damage.
Pretty meaningless post. Nuclear war against another country capable of getting one nuke through our defenses would be far too much of a cost. In the event of a US invasion I wonder if the Chinese government would launch their nuclear missiles knowing it would cost the lives of nearly every Chinese civilian. Would their desire to stay in power be worth more than the lives of their entire population? I don’t think any country has the balls to use nuclear warheads against another country that has them.
David- your right, my last comment didn’t win me any favors, :-(.
I have been thinking about these posts the last few days and an experience that I had that perhaps bears insight on this topic. Many years ago, after university (early 90’s), I left on a one-year round the world trip, similar to the aussie “walkabout.” One cold, November day I found myself on a tour of Flanders field…the infamous site of WWI trench warfare. After the tour, the guide turned to the group and asked how many people would fight for their country and of course everybody raised their had. The guide shook his head and said, “not me.” “Why should I give my life to defend the few at the top?” While I don’t totally agree (arguably some wars are justified..WW2, for example), his seemingly cowardly statement does have significant merit: Do people really hate people? During that year long trip, through Europe, Africa, India and parts of the middle east, I met amazingly wonderful people. Sure, a few bad apples here and there, but overall, people are basically the same. So it dawns on me that wars are typically between kings…started by kings, not serfs, or everyday people. So in the end, will I ever trust my government to make the right decision and represent me,or everyday people? Hell no. In the end, a handful of chinese, or muslims, or christians, or turks, or israelis hate eachother…but the fire is fueled through rhetoric, propoganda, and passing on hate from one generation to another (Palestine, northern Ireland) spread like cancer via the media. It will be interesting to see, as adoption of the internet and particularly wirless increases, whether or not our perspectives will change. I think the recent israeli actions on the palestinian humanitarian boat was proof of that…too many tweets, blogs, and obsrvers to get away with the lie…or am I just naive? Do millions of Americans hate chinese? No. People have basic needs and wants, not one of which is to kill millions of their fellow kind. Beware of governments and leaders, they don’t represent your best interests…they represent the bureacracy they seek to sustain.
Thank you for mentioning the iPod. A consumer good produced with the exploitation of the Chinese factory workers and sold for extravagantly high profits, to less than the 2% of the world’s population that cares about owning one.
As for Haiti, was there any other choice? If you have half the understanding that you pretend you do, then think for a moment and try to figure out what the consequences for US would have been otherwise.
A draw is still better than a defeat. Nuclear weapons are still the best insurance against militarily rouge nations, which is why no one is going to chuck them away anytime soon.
Captain Sasha
Your right, I meant to say the iphone, lol. But alas, you took me literally, when the point of using explicit examples was to illustrate how much American ingenuity and technology has permeated the world. As far as your point about exploitation of workers is concerned, perhaps you should also blame that on the Chinese government and regionally controlled sectors in China where currency control and artifically depressed living conditions are the order of the day? Are opium growers to blame, or opium users? I think they all have a hand in it don’t you? But alas, I get your drift, you are a one-world-government type, who apparently has an idealistic and quite unrealistic expectation of what the world should be? Alas, you forget that socialism succeeds at distribution, but never produces anything and capitalism is great at manufacturing, but poor on distribution…I guess J. Locke and Adam Smith were idiots? I guess in the end, we should all fall back to a barter economy and trade shells for coconuts? Finally, your point about Haiti is interesting…what would the consequences have been for sending 100 million instead of 1.25 billion? Again, you missed the point …essentially that I am tired of sending my tax dollars to the rest of the world…though certainly some aid for Haiti is in order. I guess you have the answer, so perhaps you will share?
BTW, I apologize to those of you interested in discussing nuclear proliferation….just wanting to end the off-topic banter with a request for insight from someone who purports to have the all the answers….
Not literally, no. Your example was a good one of how some Americans exaggerate their technological contribution the world. While US has indeed contributed significantly to scientific and technological advancement, it is no more than the technological contributions of many other countries like Japan, Britain, France, Russia or even Romania. It is silly to expect that to be a ground for some kind of gratefulness from the world. In fact, expecting that would be utterly hipocritic considering Americans payed back the help provided by the French and Russians in their independance and civil wars by hate and xenophobia.
Poor example since there is rarely any trade exploitation involved. A better example would be the child prostitution market. Who is to be blamed, the child prostitutes or the clients?
No, if I were a one-world-government type, I’d have been very supportive of the US foreign policy which actually seeks a ‘one world’ dominion. Thanks to nukes and the militarisation of countries like Russia and China, there is still a semblance of un-American sovereignty on earth.
I am a capitalist, a really hardcore one. If I find that I can make money selling human fat at $5000 a kilo, I would have no issues killing as many Americans as I could. Good enough?
Not very bright, are you? In geopolitical arena, ‘charity’ is just another political game. To explain, I’ll try another angle. How did Russian naval warships and bases end up practically in your backyard, Venezuela? How come you lost Cuba and Nicargua to foreign influence? If you really hate your money going into foreign aids, please bring it up with your government. Do whatever you can and make sure it stops. We will be more than happy if it stops, so that we can use our own money to help them out and bring them to our influence.
@ Captain Sasha “A draw is still better than a defeat. Nuclear weapons are still the best insurance against militarily rouge nations, which is why no one is going to chuck them away anytime soon.”
A draw or victory or defeat means nothing when we are all dead
nuclear weapons are a menace who cares who wins or iff you want your saftey the death of that many persons is a horable thing also i think its funny that that guy said nukes would keep china off tiwan
The Chinese did not invade or committed any aggressive wars (albeit Sino-Vietnam border war) against anyone, since over X centuries. ”Chinese are plain evil”? Is that so? Did the Chinese invade any country on the premise of a lie? Nope. Did the Chinese waste their national resources and men on pointless and endless wars for a foreign government (read, Israel)? Nope.
The Chinese are students of history, the hype of the ”Chinese threat” is nothing more than a racial-tainted lie and disinformation to scare the general public, same as using the ”Qa’eda”, Muslim or Arab ghoul against Western public, so to keep the war machine lubricated and some pockets well lined. The Chinese won’t attack or initiate any wars unless if they were provoked.
Chinese history and actions speak louder than words, and as for the US, well as I said; actions speaks volume.
In response to Frank Li with the canadian flag. You are certainly no canadian go back to CHINA. Real Canadians back their American allies and America would win. I am a real Canadian not a five dollar one.
So Tim you are a real Canadian.I take it you are a native American then.
Bacteria and virus would be winners of a nuclear war
@Tim
I don’t think you’re a CANADIAN, I’ve lived there and Canadians are peaceful people not some “Yay America rocks!” types.
@innocent
So true, some bacteria can survived even the mightiest radiation/heat/acid and other harsh environment. I guess after the nuclear blowout, the world will once again age back a couple million years to where bacterial life had started in the ocean and after some time there will be another humanoid race that is resistant to radiotion.
As for the topic, I totally agree with Aby. Since America really has a war economy, the nation is surviving on selling ammunitions and army utilities, all of which are currently being used to kill some nation’s civilians several thousand miles away from the US. Also, I guess the Chinese are tougher at living harsh lives than the Americans. Take a peek at the Vietnam War, you bombed a railway bridge, the Viet Cong/Chinese built a new wooden bridge by the following day, transports are substituted by bicycles and carriages. And they rebulit the old railway bridge several days later,they’re tough!
I’m very certain that a war between China and US will trigger another World War, as Russia will definitely join the fray and the EU (maybe, I’m not sure) will surely show their standing point in the international conflict. Although I’m certain that at that point the only safe place, if existed, would be Antarctica and several small islands, be sure to prepare the food supply!
It would be really stupid for US to show up its power to China and push China to make more and better nukes. China is scared of US military, so the more US shows off, the more money Chinese military will get. Of course US military want to get more money from US government too, so they don’t care about confrontation either. In the end, a nuclear war is unlikely while possible, but Chinese and American tax payers have to pay a lot for their armies. This is pretty sad.
Why should we even think about a war with China. We have too much to loose including the Chinese Restaurants we all love.
Please read it carefully Nobody requires a war. The present Military strength of every country is for self-defense. The previous Two world wars are happened because of lack of advanced lethal weapons. You know one logic!! If you have a knife in ur hand and other is unarmed then we strike him first,because of assurance of victory. If both have knifes then also attempt to fight, thinking that any one of them could win.If both have guns they are 50% not sure to fight.Now any two countries with N-warheads will definitely hesitate to start a war. They are just threatening!!! Now-a-days These huge military strengths may be useful for any Natural disasters
typical international trolls spewing jealousy and hate about the USA. I’m going to tell you something that everyone in America knows but usually dont bother or care to stoop to rub in your face - you and your countries dont matter, your “small man syndrome” opinions dont matter, you are an afterthought and deep down you know it and that is why you all sit at your european or asian keyboards and pound out inferiority complex driven blogs and youtube comments. As much as it pains little “Aby”, no country in the world would venture any type of large-scale military action against the USA as this is suicide and this has been the case for a hundred years. We are not a war economy, we are the world economy, we set the trends we make the standareds, you dance to our tunes - literally. WE RUN YOUR SHIT PERIOD
You idiots in the USA should wake up to what is happening in the country. The government lied about 911. How can a building fall faster than gravity? How did building 7 fall? Fire? Guess again.
“typical international trolls spewing jealousy and hate about the USA.”
For what? I don’t think the US is that strong as said, so you should think that way too. One thing I do know is the US is one of the most notorious hypocrite country in the globe. Apparently, the Americans motives were aiming only crude oil. The American main objectives is; rob as much crude oil as they could.
I hope it will not have to come to nuclear war like this. But I cannot say we were the perfect people in this situation, we made Chinese people work their fingers to the bone just so we can have a product that has been recalled for “paint issues”. We also owe up to a Trillion dollars to other countries across the globe. I live in NYC, I’ve seen 9/11 happen when i was a little boy, to see a city like this be destroyed by another threat could mean hell for the rest of us.
there will be total devastation if anuclear war broke between us and china.i reqest the chinee’s to stop its ignorance and over confidence .now the biggest problem is pak and china.pak is the storehouse of taliban and alquieda and others.china is a scam rebublic.don’t underestimate the power.all tyhe other countries have you are idots to start nuc-war
@joy
What? China is over-confident? My advice to you for browsing to the websites more often because what you said from your big-mouth was rubbish (high-illusion). India is the trouble-maker or what should we better known that? Yes. Living in fantasy. Dreaming too much. India is over-confident due to blindly listening to their media or government fiction and boasting she could compete with China. It is India creates too much chaos to Asia. India got cajoled by the American she is capable to stand against China. I mean India has taken the bait. I also request those Indian wakes up and get real, buddy. Do not believe to your government says or swanks. Surf to whatever websites you find it is logical, rational, bias free, rhetoric free, and discern facts. Next time, Indian should stay awake because they get too easily fall in to the Alice in the wonderland.
“Some idiots commented on genocide happens”
Show any evidence to proof your accusation. How come the population Tibetans living in Tibet still growing? Let say, some accuse China government has oppress to the people in Xinjiang. Similarly, the people originated in Xinjiang still maintain its sustainable growth rate. The tragedy happened was the Uyghurs provoked the clashes with Hans in Xinjiang. Many Hans were killed by the Uyghurs, but the police/military never retaliate at the Uyghurs. Ironically, the policemen detained many Hans victims.
This is some sort of conspiracy to incite people hatred to anti-government.
Do not go too far. Demanded too much! There is no separated for other Chinese territories. China won’t repeat the same mistakes again since the Mongolian has seek for independence. Be reminded, there is limited for tolerance.
I am disheartened and sad to read so many comments from other countries that lambast and criticise my country for what they have read or heard. I guess the general consensus is to blame us for every instance of earthly woe. I am not proud of our government or our foreign policy, however, the people of this country are as good as any of your fellow countrymen. We have our idiots and egoists as you have your ignorant and oblivious citizens. Tit for Tat. We have many faults and have made many mistakes in worldly situations; too many fingers in too many pies. It is my vehement belief that we should retract our hard earned money and efforts from every part of the world and leave you to yourselves; this would be prudent policy. In addition, I’d like to see some of your countries try to lead the free world and see how you would fare on the cynical and shrewd worldly stage. Some of you are too busy trying to insult and comment on how arrogant and brainless my country is and you fail to make a rational or reasonable thought.
It is also sad to read that many of you think there would be a winner in any Nuclear War. Economies would collapse, countries would be irreparable, world infrastructure would be compromised, not to mention lands would be uninhabitable. Many innnocents would die and we will have finally brought hell to earth. I don’t think anyone of any country wants that, even the mindless.
So I am sorry you foreign negatives hate my country. You probably have good reason or at least you better have some justification for your hatred and dislike of a country that is not infallable, has a populus that is good of heart, and has brought more good things to this world than any other country in recorded history and this is FACT.
We must work together and through posterity to assure this never happens. Where wars have their place in history books and remote memory. At the risk of being an idealist, all countries are great when they work together and our energies would be better distributed to solving other problems like disease, hunger, child exploitation, and greed.
if you sign up for the Army, navy whatever, your not defending your country, your defending the people at the top who brag about their countries defenses, but when push comes to shove, they send you out to do their dirty work for them, consider that before signing up.
Militarily the USA will never have any rival. It can destroy China and any other country single handedly. No country is willing to take us on - not China; not Russia; not an alliance such as the EU. As much power as the UN supposedly has it was powerless to stop the US from attacking and dismantling the Middle East. No one even attempted to attack us. China is scared of us - just go to China and talk to the people. They know and respect American power more than American people do. They themselves know China can’t even come close to beating us. But we’re fed this line that China has the potential to destroy us. - Impossible.
America will be destroyed but it wont be any foreign military - it will be destroyed from the inside out by Americans who have lost total confidence and/ or who have no allegiance to this country.
All you people still waving the flag for your respective sides should really get real! All it takes to start a global nuclear winter that would cause global starvation is 100 MegaTonnes. That’s approx 100 hydrogen bombs! USA has several 1000 warheads worth more than that. China has hundreds and Russia has similar numbers to the US. NO ONE WILL WIN A NUCLEAR WAR! We will either burn or starve. You should all be crying out in horror at the very thought of one. But it seems you are all blind to this fact for some reason. China will not win! The USA will not win! Russia will not win! WE WILL ALL LOSE!
The notion thatChina will attack SK/Japan /US is as absurd as the PLA attempting to take over the world like Kublai Khan. The problem is this type of scenario is cooked up by the hawks in the US to get more money for the Pentagon.
China is only building the means to defend it self not from Russia,Japan,Vietnam,Philippines or Taiwan but from the US.The Americans have a war mentality and with all aces shd defeat China. The trouble is victory over China will entail enormous costs.The Vietnam war would be multiplied a thousand times.
The PLA will continue to upgrade.The Chinese need not seek parity with US forces.The ability to retaliate is what is unnerving the Pentagon.Even with abm and the encirclement of China,no US president will risk all out war with China unless provoked.To this is the proviso US territory and forces must be shielded from attack.
That,I am afraid is a non starter.
If a US president engineers a war with China and uses nw,he shd be impeached.Johnson did in 1964 and 58000 GIs died for nothing. In a war with China,the US could obviously raze it to the ground.
The problem is the winds will bring radiation in a east to west direction.The American public must guard against the dogs of war in the US.With China razed and defeated ,what about the US. It will have to . pick up the pieces. As one noted atomic scientist once said ,the living will envy the dead.
China aint taking over the world and doesn’t need to be top dog. The PLA is building up the weaponry to deter the US If the this had taken place in the 50s ,the Pentagon could have easily disarmed China without much cost.The costs heve risen since then and will continue tor ise,till the US respects the China of 2012 not 1950.
The US is a great country but the government has been hijacked to serve the military industrial complex. It is war after war since 1945.
If the US public aint careful,the Pentagon could engineer a war with China over the island dispute involving the Japs.
Fortunately pragmatism will reign because China can hit back.Of course the US will prevail. But at waht cost?China blown up. US casualties in the millions.
These are all worthless…. Who will win in case of a nuclear war break out?Sir Einstein was asked once “what will happen if 2nd world war break out”? He replied…”Don’t know about that but I am sure the 3rd world war will be fought with stone”.